For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the unfolding events of Donald Trump's second term in the White House represent a series of unexpected geopolitical windfalls. The American president's recent actions are systematically undermining the Western alliance in ways that Russian strategists could only have dreamed of, while simultaneously offering Putin a path back to international legitimacy.
A Strategy of Disruption: Undermining NATO and Redefining Borders
The cornerstone of post-war European security—the unwavering American commitment to defend NATO allies—is facing its most severe test. For the first time in the alliance's 80-year history, a sitting US president is explicitly questioning this fundamental principle. Trump's rhetoric has shifted from criticising European defence spending to adopting a starkly transactional view of security, declaring in a recent letter that "Nato should do something for the United States."
This doctrinal shift was accompanied by a startling territorial claim. Trump's threat to annex Greenland, justified by pseudo-historical arguments mirroring Putin's own rhetoric on Ukraine, signals a dangerous new normal where great powers feel empowered to seize neighbour's land. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably remarked that Trump would "certainly go down in history" for his Greenland campaign, while carefully avoiding moral judgement.
Rehabilitation and Risk: The Putin-Trump Dynamic
Perhaps the most significant boon for Moscow is Trump's move to rehabilitate Putin's global standing. The invitation for the Russian leader, alongside Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko, to join a proposed "board of peace" for Gaza is a major step toward normalising relations and distancing Putin from accountability for Ukraine. This comes as Trump mimics Putin's playbook, citing historical precedent to justify expansionism, much as Russia did with Crimea.
However, the relationship remains fraught with risk for the Kremlin. Trump's volatility is a double-edged sword. His administration's dramatic decapitation of the Moscow-aligned Venezuelan regime of Nicolas Maduro removed a key Russian ally in South America. Furthermore, many in Russia's security apparatus recall Trump's first term, which saw tougher sanctions on Russia than under Barack Obama and the provision of lethal arms to Ukraine.
Lasting Damage and a Fractured West
The immediate consequences are stark. In retaliation for European support of Denmark over Greenland, Trump imposed punitive tariffs on Britain and seven other EU allies. The European Union is now preparing an unprecedented response: invoking an "anti-coercion instrument" to levy €93 billion (£80.6bn) in tariffs on US imports.
This internal NATO trade war over territory is the exact schism Putin has long sought to engineer, through means ranging from energy diplomacy to covert political funding. While his 2022 invasion of Ukraine initially strengthened alliance unity, Trump's actions from within are now achieving what external pressure could not. The long-term erosion of trust in American leadership represents a strategic victory for Moscow, potentially redrawing the global security map for decades to come, even if the immediate crisis over Greenland eventually fades.
