As Finland prepares for the second round of its presidential election on 11 February, the country’s defence chief has described Russia as an existential threat. The runoff will be between former prime minister Alexander Stubb and former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, both foreign policy veterans who have taken a hawkish stance towards Moscow.
Finland, which joined Nato in 2023, has temporarily closed its border with Russia amid rising tensions. The election comes at a time of heightened concern over Russian aggression, following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country’s outgoing president, Sauli Niinistö, who served two six-year terms, is credited with driving Finland’s Nato membership.
During the campaign, all nine candidates competed to show toughness towards the Kremlin. The election is seen as crucial for setting the parameters of foreign policy, as the president serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Finland’s defence chief has emphasised the need for preparedness, highlighting the country’s strong system of military service.
However, officials across Europe are increasingly worried about the commitment of the United States to Nato’s article 5, particularly if Donald Trump returns to the White House. There is speculation that Russia might instigate a provocation to test the US commitment to the alliance.
