Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the former head of the UK armed forces, has told Andy Burnham that defence spending plans must pass a 'Moscow test' to counter Russian threats, warning that the UK currently 'falls short' of the necessary commitment. Radakin, who served as chief of the defence staff until last year, stated that if the government's defence investment plan (Dip) – expected this week – is insufficient, the probable next prime minister will need to secure additional funding before the general election.
Funding Gap and Political Pressure
Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is believed to have secured about £1 billion more than his predecessor John Healey after intense negotiations between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Treasury. Healey resigned earlier this month after failing to secure more than £13.5 billion to plug an £18 billion gap in the Dip, which covers major capital programmes for the next decade. Little is known about Burnham's defence stance, sparking concerns in the MoD that the former Greater Manchester mayor might reopen any deal agreed under Keir Starmer, despite the prime minister's efforts to solidify his legacy on the issue.
Allies of Burnham dismissed such worries as unfounded, expressing a preference for resolving the funding row – which has involved other departments taking a 1% cut to their capital budgets – and publishing the Dip now. However, they noted that Burnham reserves the right to revisit the plan if necessary.
Radakin's Warning and the 'Moscow Test'
Speaking on the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, Radakin emphasised that the Dip must align with the commitment to increase defence spending due to a more dangerous world, requiring the UK to be 'stronger' in the 2030s. 'That's the big issue, and whether it's this prime minister or the next prime minister, if we get an announcement of additional money, well, we should always welcome that,' he said. 'But if it's not enough, then it may be that the new prime minister is going to have to find that money as part of the course of this parliament.'
Radakin elaborated: 'It's the Moscow test. What do we look like to Moscow? Do we look like a strong member of the Nato alliance? Do we look like a strong nuclear power? Do we look like a strong ally of America? Because those are the elements that keep us safe. There's a risk at the moment that we fall short on those commitments and then that creates a whole load of hurt with our Nato allies, and especially our relationship with America.'
Nato Commitments and Nuclear Spending
Starmer, who meets Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday, has promised to publish the long-delayed Dip before the Nato summit on 7 July in Turkey, one of his final international engagements. Burnham could take over as prime minister on 17 July if no contest arises. Jarvis is understood to have obtained at least £14 billion through negotiations, with the Dip expected on Tuesday, though it remains unclear if he secured additional funds for the total defence budget.
Nato has a long-term target for allies to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but the MoD worried the proposed settlement would leave too great a commitment for after the next general election. Much of the UK's defence funding goes to the nuclear deterrent, accounting for 20% in 2025-26 and rising to 25% in coming years. Nine nuclear projects cost over £10 billion, with the new Dreadnought nuclear submarine alone at £41 billion.
Radakin also highlighted that the UK is in the 'unprecedented' and 'unusual' position of being second from the bottom in a Nato league table ranking member states on meeting capability requirements. 'That needs to be resolved, we need to play our part, we need to keep the UK safe, we need to keep our alliance partners safe,' he added.
