A comprehensive new study from the Australian National University's National Security College has uncovered a significant surge in public anxiety regarding national security, with nearly half of Australians now believing a foreign military attack on the country is likely within the next five years. The research, which involved surveys and focus groups with over 20,000 participants conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, indicates a profound shift in public perception amid global instability.
Sharp Rise in Security Concerns Among Young Adults
The report highlights that three in five Australians are currently worried about national security issues, marking a substantial increase from previous years. The most dramatic escalation in concern is observed within the 18 to 24-year-old cohort, where 55% now express worry about national security, a stark rise from just 22% in November 2024. This demographic shift suggests that younger generations are increasingly attuned to geopolitical threats and their potential impacts.
Multiple Threats on the Horizon
Australians identified a broad spectrum of potential security challenges, with 85% or more respondents considering various events likely by the end of the decade. These include AI-enabled attacks, widespread disinformation campaigns, critical supply chain disruptions, the impacts of climate change, foreign interference in domestic affairs, and severe economic crises. The study underscores a pervasive sense of vulnerability across multiple fronts.
Notably, 69% of those polled in July 2025 viewed Australia's involvement in an overseas military conflict as likely to almost certain within five years. While an onshore attack by a foreign military ranked lowest on the list of perceived likely events, 45% of respondents still considered it likely, very likely, or almost certain within half a decade when questioned last July. Such an attack was rated the greatest concern, with 43% believing it would have "major consequences" and 36% regarding it as "catastrophic."
Perceived Lack of Preparedness
The findings reveal a widespread belief that Australia is inadequately prepared to handle emerging threats. More than half of those surveyed felt the country was only slightly prepared or not prepared at all for scenarios such as a foreign military attack, a severe economic crisis, a critical infrastructure attack, or a major supply disruption. This perception of unpreparedness contributes to the heightened anxiety documented in the report.
Increased Worry Over Domestic Terrorism
Concern regarding domestic terrorism events has also intensified, with 72% of respondents rating such an event as a "serious" concern in February 2026, following the Bondi attack. This represents a significant increase from 55% in November 2024, indicating that domestic incidents have a direct impact on national security perceptions.
Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, commented on the study's results, stating that most Australians are deeply concerned about national security and desire more information. "In a time when our security landscape is changing, it would be wrong to assume that Australians are complacent," he said, emphasising the need for greater public engagement and transparency.
Global Context and Economic Implications
The release of this study coincides with heightened global tensions, particularly the latest Middle East war, which has disrupted global fuel supplies and sent prices skyrocketing. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen revealed that six oil ships bound for Australia had been cancelled or deferred, acknowledging that while the government is working to replace these tankers, there will likely be "bumps in supply" in the coming months. This situation underscores the interconnectedness of global events and domestic security concerns.
The ANU study paints a picture of a nation grappling with a complex and evolving threat environment, where traditional military concerns blend with emerging technological and economic challenges. As Australians increasingly feel the weight of these potential threats, the demand for robust national security strategies and public reassurance is likely to grow, shaping political and policy discussions in the years ahead.
