Australia may never receive the Virginia-class nuclear submarines promised under the Aukus pact unless the United States doubles its submarine production rate, a senior US Navy admiral has warned. Admiral Daryl Caudle, nominee for chief of naval operations, told a Senate committee that the US is currently building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of about 1.13 per year, far below the 2.33 needed to sell any to Australia.
“That is going to require a transformational improvement; not a 10% improvement, not a 20% improvement but a 100% improvement,” Caudle said. He noted that efficiency gains or marginal improvements would not suffice to meet the commitments made under the Aukus agreement.
Under pillar one of Aukus, Australia is scheduled to buy between three and five Virginia-class submarines from the US starting in 2032. However, US legislation prohibits the sale of submarines if it would weaken US naval strength. The US submarine fleet is currently a quarter below its target, and production is at just over half the rate needed for US defence requirements.
Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said there is a “very, very high” probability that Virginia-class submarines will never arrive under Australian control. He warned that with the Collins class nearing the end of their service lives and delays in the UK’s Aukus submarine design, Australia could face a decade or more without any submarine capability.
Australia has already paid $1.6bn of an expected $4.7bn to help boost US shipbuilding, but US efforts have shown little effect. A joint statement by three rear admirals in April noted that despite an additional $5.7bn from Congress, “we have not observed the needed and expected ramp-up in submarine production rates”.
