Ten years have passed since the UK voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016. The Vote Leave campaign, led by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, made a series of bold promises to win over voters. A decade on, we assess which pledges have been fulfilled and which have fallen short.
1. £350m a Week for the NHS
The iconic claim that leaving the EU would free up £350m weekly for the NHS was plastered on the side of the Vote Leave battlebus. Experts immediately contested the figure, noting it ignored EU rebates and funding the UK received in return. Two years after the referendum, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a five-year NHS funding settlement increasing spending by 3.4% annually in real terms, reaching an extra £394m a week by 2023-24. However, Max Warner of the Institute for Fiscal Studies says it's impossible to attribute this directly to Brexit. Most economists agree Brexit has shrunk the economy by at least 4%, reducing tax revenues and making it harder to fund the NHS.
2. Bigger Bottles of Olive Oil
Johnson complained about EU rules limiting olive oil containers to five litres. Charles Carey, founder of The Oil Merchant, reports little has changed: "The rules are all exactly as they were." The only minor benefit is that labels now require the importer's address, which has helped direct buyers to him.
3. 'The Easiest Free Trade Agreement in Human History'
Liam Fox made this claim a year after the vote. In reality, negotiations were protracted and contentious. The EU insisted on settling withdrawal terms first, including a £30bn payment and the Irish border issue. The eventual Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed on Christmas Eve 2020, secured tariff-free goods trade but introduced customs checks and paperwork. Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government notes the leavers underestimated the EU's commitment to single market integrity.
4. Super-Powered Vacuum Cleaners
Johnson decried EU limits on vacuum cleaner energy input, which set a maximum of 1,600W, falling to 900W in 2017. Ten years later, the limit remains in UK law, with no industry push for change.
5. A Free Trade Zone from Iceland to Turkey
Gove promised a free trade zone spanning from Iceland to Turkey. John Springford of the Centre for European Reform says this was vague: "A free trade area can mean all sorts of things." The UK-EU deal is shallower than the European Economic Area, and Springford estimates goods exports to the EU are about 15% lower than they would have been without Brexit.
6. Taking Control of UK Waters and Supporting Fishing
Johnson pledged to "take back control over UK waters" and support fishermen. Before Brexit, EU countries landed about half the fish in UK waters. The deal gave up about a quarter of that share, phased over five and a half years. Bertie Armstrong, former chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen's Federation, says: "Things have not changed overmuch—we're still engaged in an annual round of arm-wrestling with Europe."
7. Freedom to Eat Whatever Shape Bananas We Like
Johnson complained about EU rules on banana shapes. In reality, EU regulations set guidelines for "extra class" and "class 1" bananas but did not ban bendy ones. Joël Reland of UK in a Changing Europe notes no government action was taken: "The fundamental reality is that voters didn't want lower food standards."
8. An 'Unchanged' Border in Northern Ireland
Johnson insisted the Irish border would be "absolutely unchanged." However, the issue became the most contentious in negotiations. Theresa May's "backstop" led to her downfall. Johnson's eventual deal kept Northern Ireland in the EU single market for goods, something he had previously rejected. Matthew O'Toole, now SDLP leader, says: "His prediction is only right because he was wrong about everything else." The constitutional settlement has become more fragile, with the devolved government collapsing twice since Brexit.
9. 'Free to Trade with the Whole World'
Vote Leave claimed Brexit would allow the UK to negotiate its own trade deals. Since 2016, the UK has struck deals with Australia, New Zealand, India, the CPTPP, and Gulf countries. However, the EU has also made agreements with Australia, New Zealand, India, Indonesia, and Mercosur. David Henig of the UK Trade Policy Project says the Australia deal was too generous: "Australia took us to the cleaners." He adds that the easiest deals are done, leaving the US and China as the main remaining targets.
10. An Australian-Style Points-Based Migration System
Leave campaigns argued Brexit would allow tighter border control. Instead, post-Brexit migration was liberal, employer-led, and focused on health and social care. Net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, more than triple pre-Brexit levels. Springford notes: "We ended up with a pretty liberal system." Subsequent governments have since tightened rules.
11. A Bonfire of Brussels Red Tape
Dominic Raab promised to cut unnecessary regulation. Verity Davidge of Make UK says: "If you asked a room full of manufacturers, 'Has there been a bonfire of regulations since Brexit?', you'd be faced with a deafening silence." The UKCA mark, meant to replace the CE mark, was eventually allowed to coexist, causing duplication costs. Most regulations remain unchanged.
12. More Support for Farmers
George Eustice promised farmers as much or more support post-Brexit. Tom Bradshaw of the National Farmers' Union says the budget hasn't kept up with inflation: "While the headline figures might be very similar, in reality it hasn't kept up with inflation." The shift from EU's Common Agricultural Policy to the Environmental Land Management Scheme has been chaotic, leaving food production exposed in some areas.
13. A Stronger Union Between England and Scotland
Gove argued Brexit would strengthen the union. Scots voted 62% remain, and support for independence rose from 46% in 2016 to 56% in 2019, though it has since fallen below 50%. The SNP remains the largest party in Holyrood, but constitutional issues are less salient than the economy and health. Gove's prediction has not clearly materialised, but the union has not collapsed.
