Type 2 diabetes is surging in women under 40 according to a "deeply concerning" population study of England. Obesity is driving an increase in the condition among all under 40s while rates in older adults are falling. The Lancet report looked at data on new cases of type 2 diabetes in England from 2011 to 2024.
Rising rates in younger adults
It increased by 43% in men and 69% in women aged 20 to 29 compared with a fall of 7% in men and 4% in women aged 60 to 79. The majority of cases are still in older adults but the rise in diagnoses among the under 40s means cases overall are still increasing.
Rates of Type 2 diabetes rose on average by 2.1% per year in men and 3% per year in women aged 20 to 29, contrasted with a decline of 1.7% per year in men and 1.5% per year in women aged 60 to 79.
Obesity link and expert warnings
The research team from Imperial College London warn that getting a diagnosis younger increases the risk of horror complications such as amputations, blindness, heart disease and stroke. Study lead Dr Shivani Misra said: “We have known for a long time that obesity is linked to type 2 diabetes, but what is new from this study is the scale of the change occurring in younger adults. We think that the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is increasing their type 2 diabetes risk in early life and pulling down their age at diagnosis. This is really worrying given the poor health outcomes from early-onset type 2 diabetes and as numbers increase, we need to think about implementing effective treatments as early as possible.”
Helen Kirrane, head of campaigns at Diabetes UK, said: “The rise in type 2 diabetes among younger adults is deeply concerning. Any diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is serious, but it can be more aggressive in younger people, increasing the risk of devastating complications and cutting lives short. Type 2 diabetes is a complex condition without a single cause. That's why further action needs to be taken by government, including restricting the promotion of unhealthy food and creating environments that support healthier lives.”
BMI trends and societal factors
Average increases in body mass index (BMI) among younger adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes was double that seen in older people diagnosed. The research, published in Lancet Regional Health Europe, is the first to examine trends in new cases of type 2 diabetes across the English population, broken down by age, sex and ethnicity.
Dr Misra said “young people appear to be particularly vulnerable” to the easy availability of unhealthy foods and modern lifestyles that makes it difficult to get enough exercise. She added: “There are many factors in society today that can contribute to someone developing obesity, from the widespread availability and marketing of unhealthy foods to increasingly sedentary lifestyles.”
NHS response
Matt Fagg, director of prevention at NHS England, said: “These figures are worrying and show that contrary to belief, obesity and diabetes do not just affect the middle and older ages – it is on the rise in younger adults. The NHS offers a range of support to people who are struggling to manage their weight – our world-leading diabetes prevention programme is helping hundreds of thousands of people take small steps to manage their own health, and we are rolling out effective weight loss drugs for those eligible, alongside wraparound support. Type 2 diabetes is preventable and as a society we have a collective responsibility to do more to promote healthier lifestyles, or we will continue to see growing numbers of people at increased risk of serious health problems.”
