Keir Starmer and his ministers have rammed through a sweeping law that independent experts agree will harm the public, without coming clean on costs or consequences. The deal, struck in December between Starmer and Donald Trump, commits the UK to spend more on branded drugs in return for the US not jacking up tariffs on British pharmaceutical exports. Downing Street agreed to increase drug spending as a share of national income from 0.3% to 0.6% over a decade, with money coming from the NHS budget.
Secretive Deal Smuggled Into Law
Wes Streeting and the Department of Health and Social Care gave almost no detail about costs or patient impact, creating a black hole of information. MPs never got to examine the changes, and the government used a statutory instrument to smuggle the entire thing into law without debate. Only after the deal came into effect did the government publish headline facts, sneaking them out just before the Easter bank holiday. MPs finally debated the changes this week, 'long after the horse has bolted,' as Labour backbencher Rachael Maskell told the Guardian.
Three Broken Promises
Streeting made three promises: the NHS is not on the table, no cuts to NHS services to fund the deal, and the cost would be around £1bn a year. All three now look false. The BMJ analysis, conducted by three senior health researchers including a former senior adviser to Nice, suggests the public has been misled on an epic scale. The cost over the next couple of years will be almost three times the pledged amount, and by the end of the decade, the total cost will be £44.7bn. For perspective, the government needs to find an extra £15bn for defence; the NHS may have to find triple that just for drugs.
Massive Loss of Life Forecast
The extra money will go from British taxpayers to shareholders in multinational drug companies. Using years of data on links between NHS spending and patient health, the authors' model forecasts an extra 229,000 deaths by 2036. The academics describe this as a 'conservative' estimate, but it is nearly double the avoidable deaths Britain suffered during the Covid pandemic. More money for branded pharmaceuticals means less for cancer scans, doctors, nurses, statins, and diabetes drugs.
Democratic Scrutiny Failed
The Department of Health and Social Care told the Guardian it does not recognise these figures, but despite many requests from MPs, it has not published its own impact assessment. No inquiry by select committees, no Commons debate until this week, at which a junior minister was put up to catch the flak. Over the past six months, national newspapers published only eight stories on this deal, while finding space for 274 stories on whether Wes Streeting would become the next Labour leader. Soon, the UK will have a new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who promised more democracy and transparency. The question remains: will he let this fatal deal stand?
