Researchers have found that the global rise in obesity is not inevitable, with rates in some countries levelling off or potentially declining. The study, published in the journal Nature, highlights significant variations in obesity trends across different nations, sexes, and age groups.
Global Obesity Trends
Professor Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London, the study's author, emphasised the diversity even among economically similar countries. The international team analysed data from 4,050 population-based studies involving 232 million participants aged five and above, calculating annual changes in obesity prevalence from 1980 to 2024.
While obesity increased in almost all countries over the 45-year period, in most high-income nations, a rapid rise has been replaced by a slower increase, a plateau, or a potential decline. For instance, in the US and UK, obesity growth is slowing, with prevalence reaching 40-43% and 27-30% respectively in 2024. In Finland, obesity is rising steadily, while Germany has plateaued, and France may have seen a decline, with adult obesity rates of 24-25%, 20-23%, and 11-12% respectively.
Slowdowns in Children and Adolescents
Slowdowns often appeared in children and adolescents before adults. In Denmark, this began as early as 1990, and rates stabilised in most high-income countries by the mid-2000s. Obesity has plateaued in boys and girls in the UK, US, Germany, and Japan at prevalences of 10-12%, 20-23%, 7-12%, and 3-7% respectively.
Conversely, obesity among young people and adults in many low-income and middle-income countries continues to rise, sometimes accelerating. The team stresses the importance of understanding the drivers behind these trends, which may include country-specific factors like body image perceptions, public health interventions such as healthy school meals, and broader social, economic, and policy contexts.
Expert Commentary
Professor Naveed Sattar of the University of Glasgow, not involved in the study, noted that English-speaking nations are performing poorly, with the UK among the highest obesity levels worldwide. He called for understanding what has worked in plateauing countries to shape effective public health strategies. Sattar also expressed concern over rising obesity in developing countries, which could lead to increased diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. He added that wider use of effective weight-loss medicines, combined with strong public health measures, could shift obesity rates in the right direction.
