Almost half of the 6.23 million patients awaiting NHS treatment in England have had no further care since joining a hospital waiting list, new data reveals. The figures, analysed by health data specialist MBI Health, show that 2.99 million patients (48%) have not had their first specialist appointment or a diagnostic test following a GP referral.
The Patients Association described the situation as an “invisible waiting list crisis” of staggering scale, with millions living in limbo as their health deteriorates. Chief executive Rachel Power said: “If accurate, 3 million people are trapped… stuck without basic diagnostic tests or first appointments while their conditions worsen.”
The data casts doubt on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pledge to have 92% of patients treated within 18 weeks of referral by 2029. The target has not been met since 2015, and in May only 61% were treated on time. A third of the 3 million unseen patients – 1 million people – have already waited more than 18 weeks without receiving any care.
Barry Mulholland, founder of MBI Health and a former NHS manager, said the waiting list should be seen as a “frontlog, not a backlog”, because so many people have not had their first clinical contact. He warned: “Unless that’s dealt with, you will never achieve that target of seeing and treating patients within 18 weeks.”
The medical specialities with the highest numbers of unseen patients include ear, nose and throat care, orthopaedics, eye care, gastroenterology and gynaecology, where between 67% and 75% of waiting lists consist of such patients. NHS England acknowledged that of the 7.3 million treatments patients are waiting for, 4.7 million (64%) are for people who have not yet had a first consultation or diagnostic test.
