A senior government science adviser has told the UK Covid-19 Inquiry that it was clear by February 2020 the NHS would be overwhelmed by the pandemic. Professor Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said civil servants were aware of these concerns at the time.
Prof Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the inquiry it was 'no secret' by the end of February 2020 that the NHS would be overwhelmed. He stated that the infection fatality rate had been established at around 1%, and if 80% of the population were infected in a single wave, the number of deaths could be calculated.
When asked why Sage minutes did not record high levels of concern, Prof Medley said civil servants responsible for the minutes would have 'completely understood' the scientists' views. He also recalled an account named 'Dominic Cummings iPhone X' dialling into remote meetings of the SPI-M-O subgroup at the time, adding: 'Even if it is not in the paperwork, it was known.'
The inquiry was shown WhatsApp messages from June 2020 in which then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote: 'These Sage geezers now saying we should have gone into lockdown earlier. Can we gently ask them why they didn't make their anxieties public at the time???' Sir Patrick Vallance, then chief scientific adviser, replied that Sage minutes were published and recommendations were clear. Then-Health Secretary Matt Hancock called the comments 'exceptionally unhelpful'.
Prof Medley said the area of media appearances was a 'minefield', noting the tension between government valuing independent advice and scientists' freedom to speak publicly. He added that in an epidemic, 'the coherence of the population' is key to outcomes.
The second stage of the Covid Inquiry is examining political decision-making from January 2020 to February 2022, including lockdown timing and effectiveness. Evidence is being heard in London until Christmas, before moving to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
