Government and water companies are drawing up emergency plans for a drought next year more extreme than any seen in decades, according to a senior executive at a major water company. The Met Office's long-term forecast indicates a likely winter with lower than average rainfall, which could force water curtailment measures beyond hosepipe bans.
While much of England experienced drought this summer, the situation was mitigated by a rainy autumn and winter the previous year that filled reservoirs and recharged groundwater. However, months of record dry weather have depleted these reserves, and average reservoir storage now stands at 63.3%, compared to the seasonal average of 76%. Some reservoirs, such as Ardingly in West Sussex and Clatworthy and Wimbleball in Somerset, are below 30% capacity.
Groundwater, which takes longer to recharge, remains fragile despite recent rainfall. South East Water has applied for a local water restriction order that would ban some businesses from using water for activities like cleaning buildings or filling hotel pools. Alastair Chisholm, director of policy at the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, warned that a second dry winter would escalate the situation, leading to more drought orders and restrictions on business water use.
England's lack of water resilience is exacerbated by a growing population, increased risk of hot, dry summers, and the fact that no major reservoir has been built in over 30 years. Chisholm emphasised that building new reservoirs alone is insufficient and called for rapid water efficiency measures, including leak reduction, smart metering, and water-efficient appliances in new homes. He criticised the government's fixation on reservoirs while neglecting water efficiency policies.
The Met Office's chief meteorologist, Dr Will Lang, noted that by 28 October, England had received only 61% of its expected annual rainfall, compared to the normal 80% for that time of year. He warned of an increased risk of dry spells through late autumn and early winter, with sustained recovery from drought uncertain without widespread precipitation.
