First responders are preparing for a fourth summer heatwave that could push temperatures to 35C in parts of south-east England, raising the risk of wildfires across already parched areas. The heatwave follows days of dry conditions after some of the UK's most arid regions missed out on weekend rain.
Northern and western parts of the UK saw some rainfall over the weekend, with further showers expected in the coming days. However, southern areas remain dry, with brown grass and soaring temperatures forecast.
Heat Health Alert Issued
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued a yellow heat health alert covering large parts of England from 6pm BST on Tuesday, 28 July, until 6pm BST on Friday, 31 July. The alert warns of possible “significant impacts” on health and social care services, including a rise in deaths among the elderly, vulnerable individuals, and those with health conditions.
Areas affected include Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, and South West.
Fire Severity Warnings
According to Met Office data used by Natural England and Natural Resources Wales, fires that start on Wednesday are likely to become exceptionally severe in parts of eastern, southern, and south-east England. On Thursday, the “exceptionally severe” warnings focus on eastern England.
The Fire Severity Index considers rainfall, temperature, and humidity to assess the severity of a fire if it starts, but does not indicate the likelihood of wildfires occurring.
Fire Services on Alert
Emergency crews have already spent days battling large wildfires in Wales and Scotland that forced evacuations. A National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) spokesperson said: “With the Met Office warning that a fourth heatwave could develop this week, bringing another period of very hot weather to parts of the UK, fire and rescue services remain on alert and are continuing to prepare for renewed wildfire risk.”
The spokesperson added that fighting nearly 20 wildfires at once demonstrates “the scale of the challenge posed by the prolonged hot, dry conditions.” They urged the public to help prevent fires, noting that “most wildfires are preventable.”
Temperature Records and Rainfall
While temperatures cooled and some rain fell over the weekend, southern England is expected to reach heatwave thresholds again on Wednesday, with highs of 32C or 33C, and more on Thursday. Senior Met Office meteorologist Dan Stroud said July was 3C above average across the UK based on provisional data, potentially ranking among the hottest three or four Julys on record.
Fellow senior meteorologist Marco Petagna noted that heatwave thresholds for some counties were raised by one degree four or five years ago. “Going forward they’ll need to be adjusted to take into account… current climate, otherwise we’re going to more frequently go into heatwaves. It’s a moveable thing, really, as we go through a warming world,” he said.
Rainfall statistics show southern England has received just 1% of its average July rainfall, England 5%, and the UK as a whole 20%, according to Met Office data.
