The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies. With an El Niño event expected later this year, the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat and driving extreme weather, including the recent heatwave in the UK and Europe. Global heating is estimated to take one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.
A report by the UK Met Office for the WMO predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for 2026-2030 will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said: “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis. Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster.”
Scientists warn that warming above 1.5C risks severe heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods. The Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5C is now unlikely to be met, but the weaker 2C target remains within reach with urgent action. The WMO report found less than a 1% chance of any single year from 2026 to 2030 exceeding 2C above pre-industrial levels.
El Niño, expected by late 2026, will boost global temperatures. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 96% chance of El Niño in December 2026 to February 2027, with a 35% chance of a super El Niño. The Met Office predicts Arctic winters over the next five years will be 2.8C above recent averages, and rainfall patterns will shift, with northern Europe and the Sahel likely wetter and the Amazon drier.
