The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis continues to intensify. With an El Niño event expected later this year, the global temperature record could be broken as soon as 2027, according to a new report produced by the UK Met Office for the WMO.
Rising Temperatures and Extreme Weather
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather events. This includes the record-breaking heatwave that has recently hit the United Kingdom and Europe. Global heating is already estimated to be responsible for one death every minute, with the toll likely to increase unless emissions are reduced rapidly.
Key Predictions from the WMO Report
The report predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. Furthermore, there is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The Paris agreement goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C is assessed over a 20-year period but is now unlikely to be met. However, the weaker 2C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken.
El Niño and Its Impact
Global temperatures are expected to be boosted by El Niño, a natural and cyclical weather pattern now expected by the end of the year. The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates a 96% chance of an El Niño occurring between December 2026 and February 2027, with a 35% chance of a super El Niño. El Niño events form due to changes in winds in the Pacific Ocean, causing heat stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere. Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, stated: "There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year."
Regional Climate Projections
The report also highlights that the next five winters in the Arctic are expected to be 2.8C above recent averages, meaning the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average. In terms of rainfall, northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia are likely to experience wetter-than-usual conditions from May to September over the next five years, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.
Urgent Call for Action
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, commented: "The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia." He emphasised that protecting human lives, businesses, and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster, noting that clean power is now cheaper than fossil fuels and faster to produce.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5C risks unleashing more severe heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods, making it harder for communities to adapt. However, every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces damage. The WMO report found less than a 1% chance that any single year from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial average.
