The United Nations has warned that the world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño, a natural weather pattern that supercharges weather extremes. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday that there is an 80% chance of El Niño forming before September and a 90% chance before November.
Most models project the phenomenon to be at least moderate in strength, with some indicating it could be strong. However, the WMO noted a large spread in forecasts, with some models not predicting a strong event. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described it as an urgent climate warning, stating that El Niño will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024. The WMO forecasts unusually high temperatures across nearly all parts of the planet for the next three months, along with a greater probability of extreme rain and drought.
El Niño typically brings heavier rain to parts of South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while causing drier conditions in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia. It can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific but hinder them in the Atlantic.
The warning comes as western Europe experienced an unusually hot May, with temperature records broken in the UK and Ireland. The WMO and UK Met Office have previously warned that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain before the end of the decade, with El Niño potentially bringing this as soon as 2027. Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit said this would be devastating for farmers and a matter of life or death for many.
The WMO emphasised the importance of early-warning systems, though noted challenges in funding and implementation. Guterres called for climate action, including ending fossil fuel dependence and accelerating the shift to renewables.
