Emergency services are preparing for further wildfires as the UK faces its fourth heatwave of the year. During the third heatwave in mid-July, firefighters dealt with 19 significant wildfires simultaneously across England and Wales.
This week's hot spell follows devastating blazes in mainland Europe, where 220,000 people were evacuated in south-west France and 116,000 in Spain.
Heatwave Thresholds May Need Adjustment
A Met Office meteorologist has indicated that UK heatwave thresholds will likely need to be updated to reflect a warming climate, as temperature records continue to be broken.
A National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) spokesperson said: "With the Met Office warning that a fourth heatwave could develop this week, bringing another period of very hot weather to parts of the UK, fire and rescue services remain on alert and are continuing to prepare for renewed wildfire risk."
The NFCC added that battling nearly 20 wildfires simultaneously demonstrates "the scale of the challenge posed by the prolonged hot, dry conditions." They stressed that most wildfires are preventable and urged the public to help protect communities, wildlife, and natural spaces while reducing pressure on firefighters.
Weather Forecast and Health Alerts
After a weekend of cooler temperatures and some rain, southern England is expected to meet heatwave criteria again on Wednesday, with highs of 32C or 33C, continuing into Thursday.
A yellow heat alert has been issued from 9am Tuesday to 9am Friday for the East and West Midlands, south-east, south-west, east of England, and Yorkshire and the Humber. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) warned of possible "significant impacts" on health and social care services, including increased deaths among the elderly or those with health conditions, and a rise in drownings.
Senior Met Office meteorologist Dan Stroud described the hot spell as a "north-south split," with cloud and rain in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and northern England. He said the peak will be "almost a blink and you miss it," with temperatures cooling to near average by the weekend.
July Heat and Drought Conditions
Provisional Met Office data shows July was 3°C above average across the UK, potentially ranking among the hottest three or four Julys on record. Senior meteorologist Marco Petagna noted that heatwave thresholds were raised by a degree four or five years ago for some counties. "Going forward they'll need to be adjusted to take into account… current climate, otherwise we're going to more frequently go into heatwaves. It's a moveable thing, really, as we go through a warming world," he said.
Rainfall has been minimal: southern England received just 1% of its average July rainfall, England 5%, and the UK 20%. The dry spell has led to low water levels, with North Wales and the Upper Severn becoming the first areas to declare drought status on Thursday.
Fire Severity Warnings
According to Met Office data used by Natural England and Natural Resources Wales, fires that start on Wednesday in parts of east, south, and south-east England are likely to be exceptionally severe. On Thursday, "exceptionally severe" warnings focus on eastern England. The Fire Severity Index assesses potential severity based on rainfall, temperature, and humidity, but does not predict the likelihood of wildfires.
Emergency crews have already spent days fighting large wildfires in Wales and Scotland, forcing evacuations.
