The United Kingdom could experience further heatwaves over the next three months, as the Met Office has predicted another scorching summer. In its three-month outlook, the forecaster indicated that the probability of a hot summer is above normal, raising the potential for heatwaves and associated impacts.
Record-Breaking Spring
This prediction follows a historic heatwave that saw temperatures reach 35.1C at Kew Gardens last Monday. Several parts of the country recorded six consecutive days above 30C, and both spring and May maximum temperature station records were exceeded by more than 2C. According to provisional statistics, this spring was the warmest on record for England and Wales, and the third warmest for the UK overall.
Drivers of the Forecast
The Met Office attributed the warming trend to the ongoing heating of the UK climate and a likely El Niño weather event. For June, the chance of hot weather is also higher than normal, but Atlantic frontal systems are expected to bring showers or longer spells of rain early in the month. By mid-June, higher pressure and more settled conditions are likely, with temperatures near normal. Later in June, conditions are expected to remain relatively settled, with drier weather across most of the UK.
"Towards the end of June, low pressure may begin to have more of an influence, especially across the south where heavy showers and thunderstorms become more probable. It may also become hot in parts of the south," the Met Office stated.
Climate Context
Met Office scientist Dr. Emily Carlisle commented: "This spring highlights both the natural variability of the UK's weather and the longer-term warming we are observing. While conditions varied through the season, all three months of meteorological spring recorded mean temperatures within the UK's top ten warmest on record. While we expect fluctuations from year to year, this spring shows some of the changes we're seeing in our weather patterns, with more extreme conditions becoming more frequent. The fact that nine of the ten warmest springs in England have occurred since 2007 illustrates this ongoing shift in the UK's climate."
Five-Day Forecast
Today: A band of rain will move eastwards, becoming slow-moving across parts of Scotland. A mix of sunshine and showers follows, with the most frequent showers likely in the north, and hail and thunder possible for many. Windy for most areas.
Tonight: Further showers or longer spells of rain likely into the evening and overnight, with some clear spells across the east. Remaining rather breezy and mild.
Thursday: Remaining breezy with sunny spells and showers, merging at times to give longer spells of rain and possibly the odd rumble of thunder. Near normal temperatures.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday: Showers less frequent on Friday. A spell of rain and stronger winds arriving Saturday, with sunny spells and showers returning on Sunday. Temperatures close to or slightly below normal.
