The Great Barrier Reef's outlook remains 'very poor' despite signs of coral recovery over the past year, Australian government scientists have warned. The assessment comes just days before a UNESCO ruling on the site's world heritage status, with the United Nations cultural agency recommending last month that the world's largest reef system be placed on its endangered list due to damage largely caused by climate change.
The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) said in its annual report that corals are currently in a 'recovery window' after a reprieve from a decade of harmful heat stress and cyclones. However, chief executive Paul Hardisty noted that such opportunities are becoming rarer due to the increasing frequency of climate-related extreme weather events and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish.
Scientists surveyed 127 reef sites in 2021 and found that hard coral cover had increased at 69 of the 81 locations surveyed in the past two years, driven largely by fast-growing table and branching Acropora corals. Despite this, separate research released last October found the 2,300-kilometre system had lost half its corals since 1995 due to a series of ocean heatwaves causing mass coral bleaching.
Britta Schaffelke, research program director at AIMS, described the latest findings as a 'glimmer of hope' that the reef still has resilience, but stressed that its outlook remains 'very poor' because of the dangers of climate change and other factors. Australia has launched a last-minute lobbying effort to avoid a World Heritage downgrade, including sending the environment minister to Paris to meet with UNESCO officials and taking key ambassadors on a reef snorkelling trip last week.
UNESCO has urged Australia to take urgent climate action, but the conservative government has resisted committing to net zero emissions by 2050, saying it hopes to meet the target 'as soon as possible' without harming its commodity-dependent economy. The reef was worth an estimated US$4.8 billion a year in tourism revenue before the pandemic, and there are fears an 'in danger' listing could weaken its tourist appeal.
