A new "death map" from the Climate Impact Lab projects that the current record-breaking Super El Niño could lead to an estimated 857,400 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and March 2027. The updated El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker models the human cost of the event as it combines with human-caused global warming to push ocean and land temperatures to unprecedented extremes.
Deadly Six-Month Window
From October 2026 to March 2027, the tracker projects around 373,000 excess deaths. This spike is concentrated largely in the Global South, where weaker cooling infrastructure and shifting monsoons can make heatwaves far more lethal.
Just three countries are forecast to account for over a third of those deaths: Nigeria, India and Brazil. Nigeria is predicted to suffer the worst overall burden, with around 56,100 additional heat deaths projected across the October to March window. India follows close behind with roughly 55,200, with the toll expected to rise sharply towards March. Brazil is forecast to see around 19,500 additional deaths, with higher-than-average heat each month.
Other Hotspots and Record Heat
Other major hotspots flagged by the tracker include Indonesia, projected to lose around 29,300 people, and Sudan with about 14,700 over the same period. Scientists say this El Niño is so dangerous because it has smashed records.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern driven by warmer surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, but this time sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific have surged about 3.4°C above historical averages, leading experts to brand it "Godzilla-level" or a "Super El Niño". The extreme ocean heat is linked to cascading global weather disruption, including drought and monsoon failures in parts of Asia and Africa, plus destructive wildfires and flooding elsewhere.
Warnings and Tracker Purpose
Aid agencies have also warned the knock-on effects could push up to 50 million people into severe food and water insecurity. The Climate Impact Lab says its tracker is designed to help funders and policymakers prioritise where help is needed most, including early warning systems, expanded healthcare access, and the rollout of water supplies and cooling centres.
It also notes the projected totals have jumped since a September 2026 report, partly because March has now been added into the forecast, and because August and September turned out far hotter than expected, with August the warmest August on record and September the second-warmest September ever recorded.
