Scientists have issued a stark warning that an imminent 'super El Niño' could surpass the devastating 1877 event, which led to the deaths of up to 50 million people worldwide. The 1877 El Niño, one of the most severe climate events in recorded history, triggered a global humanitarian disaster known as The Great Famine.
Historical Context and Potential Impact
Climate reconstructions indicate that water temperatures in a critical region of the Pacific Ocean rose by 2.7°C (4.86°F) during the 1877 event, disrupting rainfall patterns globally. This resulted in widespread food scarcity and disease outbreaks, killing an estimated four percent of the Earth's population at the time. If such an event occurred today, it would equate to at least 250 million fatalities.
Current forecasts suggest that water temperatures could potentially exceed 3°C (5.4°F) above average later this year, making the upcoming super El Niño even more powerful than the one nearly 150 years ago.
Expert Warnings
Deepti Singh, associate professor at Washington State University, told the Washington Post: 'Simultaneous multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again. What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme.'
Professor Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York at Albany, stated that there is 'real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.'
The 1877 Super El Niño in Perspective
Many climate historians consider the 1877–78 event to have reshaped world history, viewing it as one of the first 'truly global climate disasters.' Drought conditions that had been developing for several years intensified, causing crops to collapse across vast areas. India was among the worst-hit regions as monsoon rains disappeared, while Northern China suffered devastating dry spells leading to harvest failures. In Brazil, rivers dried up and agriculture collapsed; parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia also experienced severe drought and forest fires.
The resulting famine weakened societies, intensified colonial control in some regions, accelerated migration, and exposed the vulnerability of global food systems to climate shocks. Outbreaks of malaria, plague, dysentery, smallpox, and cholera further ravaged weakened populations.
Current Predictions and Preparedness
The Met Office's modelling suggests sea surface temperatures could reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average, potentially marking the 'strongest El Niño event so far this century.' The American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a one-in-four chance of a 'very strong' El Niño with temperature anomalies over 2°C (3.6°F). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimates a rise of up to 3°C (5.4°F).
Despite these concerns, experts note that the world is now much better prepared to handle such events due to advancements in climate monitoring and prediction. The social, political, and economic factors that exacerbated the 1877 disaster no longer exist, reducing the likelihood of similar catastrophic losses. However, a super El Niño could still significantly impact food security, with ripple effects across the globe.
Understanding El Niño
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern cycling between warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. During El Niño, warm waters in the Pacific spread out, raising global surface temperatures. When ocean surface warming exceeds 2°C (3.6°F), it is often termed a 'super El Niño,' though scientists rarely use this term.
Current measurements show sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rising faster than at any other time this century, strongly indicating a powerful El Niño is brewing. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organization, said: 'Climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow. Models indicate that this may be a strong event.'
