The UK Met Office has warned that a powerful El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with a high probability of becoming a “Super El Niño” of record strength. Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said the event could “even be of record strength” and that forecasters are “very confident” a major event is coming.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 63 per cent likelihood that this El Niño will rank among the largest since 1950 by late fall and early winter. United Nations secretary-general António Guterres described it as an “urgent climate warning” that will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where surface ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise. A “Super El Niño” occurs when these temperatures exceed 2°C above normal. The current event has already formed, with sea surface warming expected to peak in autumn. There is a more than 85 per cent chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the upcoming winter.
Globally, El Niño disrupts weather patterns, causing droughts in Indonesia and Australia, heavy rainfall in Chile, and an extreme Pacific typhoon season. In the UK, the effect is weaker but can bring colder winters and hotter summers. Professor Bill McGuire of University College London warned that summer temperatures could exceed 40°C, possibly as soon as next year.
The Met Office and other experts continue to monitor the situation closely, as the event could intensify extreme weather worldwide.
