Russia orchestrated a coordinated drone surveillance campaign targeting nuclear sites in the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands over an 18-month period, according to researchers at the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). The analysis of 144 incidents in more than a dozen countries beginning in late 2024 concluded that Russian intelligence operated with 'substantial impunity,' leaving European authorities flat-footed and confused.
Key Targets and Incidents
Among the targeted sites were RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, which was being prepared to house US nuclear weapons, and France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue in Brittany. Drones were repeatedly spotted over airbases and airports, yet none were captured or shot down by Western militaries, exposing a strategic failure in Nato air defenses that the thinktank said had been quietly acknowledged across Europe.
In late November 2024, unusual drones flew low into RAF Lakenheath, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, and at least two other US air force bases in England. US nuclear weapons were deployed at Lakenheath in July 2025. The drones may have been piloted from the Seasons 1 tanker in the North Sea near Essex, or the Hav Dolphin, a cargo vessel docked at Hull at the time. The Hav Dolphin was also suspected of being behind drone sightings at a submarine base in northern Germany the following May.
Response and Challenges
A police helicopter attempted to track drones flying into the UK on one occasion but pulled back for safety reasons. Firing an anti-drone laser 'was suggested but ultimately not progressed,' the report said. Five drones were detected over France's Île Longue base in December 2025, with three Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels between 60 and 120 miles off shore, and the Hav Dolphin 220 miles away near the Isle of Wight.
Drone incursions also occurred in November and December 2025 over Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium and Volkel in the Netherlands, where US nuclear weapons are stored, at times when Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels were in international waters in the North Sea.
Russian Tactics and Motivations
Drones were likely launched from 'dark sailing' vessels operating off the coast with transponder tracking devices switched off. Other ships are thought to have acted as recovery vessels or signal repeaters using drone control techniques first learned during the war in Ukraine. Charlie Edwards, a senior IISS fellow, said, 'It is our assessment that it is highly likely that the Kremlin conducted a coordinated UAV campaign over Europe' spanning more than a dozen Nato countries and Ireland.
The campaign represented 'a series of tactical successes for the Kremlin' and 'a strategic failure of allied defenses' designed for conventional military threats rather than low-cost, low-flying drones. Russian motivations are considered to include nuclear surveillance, general reconnaissance, mapping military logistics, and 'economic attrition and psychological warfare.'
Broader Impact and Seizures
Significant drone sightings across Europe peaked in September and November 2025, with the most occurring in Germany. They appeared to have fallen off since European navies began seizing shadow fleet vessels in 2026. In September 2025, a series of drone sightings in Denmark forced the closure of Copenhagen airport. Four shadow fleet tankers were sailing near Denmark, including the Boracay, which French commandos seized four days later.
The Boracay was released a few days later, but the boarding revealed that the tanker had a Chinese captain and two Russian nationals employed by the Moran Security Group, a Russian private military company. 'The identification of two Russian private military contractors confirmed the militarisation of shadow fleet tankers, not as hypothesis but as operational practice,' the IISS report said, in a campaign believed to be orchestrated by the GRU, Russia's main foreign military intelligence agency.
The researchers also suggested four drones had been spotted flying over an Irish navy ship towards the country's coast in December 2025, on the evening after a visit by Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Maltese-flagged Vezhen was sailing about 30 miles north-east of Dublin. Swedish authorities had detained the vessel in January 2025 in connection with damage to an undersea fibre-optic cable but released it after the incident was deemed accidental.
Several drone models are believed to have been used, though none have been confirmed. The Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone has an operating range of 300 miles and can fly for about 12 hours, allowing it to be launched and piloted at considerable distances from targets.
