Queensland and the Northern Territory are on track for their warmest October on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Senior climatologist Hugh McDowell described the month as “pretty unusual,” noting that it is likely to be the third warmest on record for Australia as a whole, and the hottest October by maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for both Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Capital cities Sydney and Brisbane are also heading for their hottest October in terms of maximum temperatures. Darwin airport recorded its hottest month ever, with average maximum temperatures reaching 34.8C. Remote areas have seen extreme highs, including Birdsville airport in Queensland at 46.1C, breaking the previous state record of 45.1C set in 1995. Wanaaring in north-western New South Wales hit 44.9C, the highest October temperature for that state since records began in 1910.
The heat has been driven by persistent high pressure allowing heat to build on land, combined with westerly winds linked to a negative Southern Annular Mode. The BoM also noted the rare sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica in September, which is now dissipating, as a contributing factor. This event has been associated with warmer and drier patterns, particularly for New South Wales and Victoria.
Dr Martin Jucker, a senior lecturer in atmospheric science at the University of New South Wales, said the impact on rainfall was visible, with below-average soil moisture in much of New South Wales despite a wet start to the year. He described the weather as “a horrible year” for the state, with floods and record heat. The above-average conditions are expected to continue, with the BoM forecasting above-average daytime and night-time temperatures from November to January for most of Australia.
Sea surface temperatures have been the warmest or second warmest on record every month since July 2024 and are forecast to remain above average. The BoM warned that warmer oceans can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones, and rain systems. Australia’s national annual average temperature is about 1.5C higher than in 1910, with climate change increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
