A new report has revealed that the growing extraction of rainforest resources is pushing the Amazon, Congo basin, and Southeast Asian forests toward a critical tipping point. The analysis, produced by the Dutch research organisation Profundo and commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway, highlights how fresh demands for critical minerals, biofuels, and pulp—used in fast fashion, processed food, and packaging—are compounding existing pressures from cattle ranching, monocrops, oil, and logging.
Mining's hidden footprint
Mining, in particular, has a far greater environmental footprint than previously thought due to secondary impacts such as water pollution and the construction of roads, settlements, and other infrastructure. Between 10% and one-third of the world's forests are already affected, and this proportion is expected to increase. The authors stress an urgent need to replace and reduce the use of products from forest regions, rather than simply adding new forms of consumption.
Compounding threats across forest basins
The report tracks commodity trends threatening forests in the Amazon, Congo basin, and Southeast Asia, weakening their capacity to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water, and provide habitat for wildlife. Cattle ranching, agriculture, and gold mining remain the biggest threats, all forecast to continue expanding. While these extractive threats are often examined in isolation, the authors argue they must be understood together as a compounding assault.
Ingrid Turgen of Rainforest Foundation Norway stated: "It creates a pressure that the rainforests cannot withstand. Our main message is that this compilation—one on top of the other—is affecting all three rainforest basins, and if governments don't act, places like the Amazon face a bleak scenario."
Beef production and deforestation
The report predicts that a 10.2% increase in beef production forecast by the Brazilian government could cause at least 57,000 square kilometres of deforestation by 2034. This figure could be higher if ranching shifts further into the Amazon. Global meat production is expected to rise 13% over the same period, driven by population growth.
Gold mining expansion
Open-pit gold mines already cover 1.9 million hectares of the Amazon biome, and this is likely to increase due to demand for jewellery (43% of gold use), technology (7%), and ingots held by investors and central banks. The report finds a clear correlation between gold prices and gold mining-related deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, projecting an extra 375 square kilometres of deforestation by 2028.
Fossil fuel frontiers
Oil, gas, and coal are playing an ever bigger role in rainforest destruction, both directly from drilling and indirectly through global heating. The Amazon is one of the fastest-growing fossil fuel frontiers, with exploration and extraction in Brazil, Suriname, Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru. Nearly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas reserves identified between 2022 and 2024 were found in the South American rainforest and offshore regions. Last year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo approved exploration of 52 new oil blocks covering 1.24 million square kilometres in the Cuvette Centrale peatlands, the world's largest terrestrial carbon sink.
Critical minerals for clean energy
Additional pressure comes from mining for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt used in batteries and clean energy technologies. The study estimates cumulative deforestation linked to the global electric vehicle fleet could reach between 1,500 and 4,700 square kilometres by 2050 on current trends. While this is barely 1% of all expected deforestation in that period, secondary effects are considerable. The environmental impact of mines can spread across a 50-kilometre radius due to water and land contamination, disproportionately affecting Indigenous territories and intact forests.
Veera Mo of Rainforest Foundation Norway noted: "The cumulative impacts of mining on forest areas have likely been significantly underestimated for many years."
Biofuel expansion
The biofuel sector, promoted as a sustainable alternative to oil and gas for aviation and shipping, is another rising stressor. The report estimates 52 million hectares of additional cropland will be needed to meet projected 2030 global demand for biofuel. For biofuel-related soy crops alone, it predicts between 31,600 and 35,000 square kilometres of Amazon vegetation will be cleared by 2035.
Oil palm and processed foods
Oil palm pressures are also growing as processed foods become more popular globally. While the main impact has been on Southeast Asian forests, particularly Indonesia, the report warns the Congo basin could become a new frontier due to rising urbanisation and processed food markets in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
Green consumerism's hidden cost
Throwaway products marketed as "green" in faraway cities can worsen rainforest health. The fast-fashion popularity of viscose (rayon), a semi-synthetic fibre made from wood pulp, adds pressure on Indonesia's forests. Similarly, paper bags touted as a "green" alternative to plastic are not always sustainably sourced, nor is much of the packaging used by the fast-growing e-commerce sector.
Possible solutions
The report sets out possible solutions, including improved transparency in supply chains, stronger enforcement of regulations, and increased recycling to reduce the need for new mines. Ultimately, a core goal should be to reduce demand in consumer countries. Lead author Barbara Kuepper stated: "A reduction in resource use can't be avoided. There is no doubt recycling is needed but it will not help enough. The overall use of resources is just too big. Even in sectors where we hope for a transition, like energy, the impact on forests is worryingly high."
