Seasonal models are predicting an El Nino climate pattern that could be the strongest on record, bringing with it more extreme weather. “I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” said Jeff Berardelli, WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist in Tampa, Florida.
What Is El Nino?
El Nino is a cyclical, natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that alters global weather patterns. Its counterpart, La Nina, is marked by cooler-than-average waters. Berardelli explained that an El Nino event essentially redistributes heat on Earth. Currently, subsurface heat in the Pacific is moving east and ascending to the surface, marking the initial stages of El Nino.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects an El Nino event to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns. While models indicate a potentially strong event, the WMO cautioned that spring forecasts are less accurate.
Why It’s Causing Alarm
“The volume and intensity of subsurface warm water anomalies are about as large as we’ve seen in the historical record,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources. The strongest events are called “super El Ninos.” Swain noted that one key building block for a super El Nino is occurring, but it’s not guaranteed. “The potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.”
Berardelli warned that if the Pacific releases a lot of heat, it supercharges the climate system, causing stronger heatwaves, worsening drought in some areas, and more intense floods due to increased moisture. El Nino also subdues Atlantic hurricane season, as Pacific heat outcompetes the Atlantic, leading to drier conditions in the Caribbean.
Where Impacts May Be Felt
El Nino has global impacts. In the United States, this summer is expected to be hotter than normal with significant heatwaves, Berardelli said. More frequent daily thunderstorms are likely in the Southwest. Forest degradation in the Amazon, already affected by wildfires, logging, and drought, could be exacerbated by a strong El Nino in 2026.
The excess heat from El Nino, combined with climate change, will lead to record-breaking global warmth, Swain predicted. He expects record global temperatures later this year, next year, or both. “All indicators are that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective.”
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that while El Nino boosts global temperatures for a year or two, it’s a “zero-sum game” that typically oscillates back to La Nina, lowering temperatures. He stressed that the long-term warming trend will continue as long as fossil fuels are burned.
