The UK Met Office has issued a stark warning that the world is almost certain to endure a record-breaking hot year by 2030, as the climate crisis intensifies. In a report produced for the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), scientists predict an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded.
There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. The global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027, with an El Niño event expected later this year. El Niño, a natural cyclical weather pattern, releases heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat and driving extreme weather, including the record-breaking heatwave that has hit the UK and Europe this week. Global heating is already estimated to be taking one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: 'The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster.'
The report also predicts that the next five winters in the Arctic will be 2.8°C above recent averages, meaning the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average. Rainfall predictions suggest northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia are likely to be wetter than usual from May to September over the next five years, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.
