The Met Office has said that while further heatwaves are possible in the UK over the rest of summer, they are not guaranteed. In a blog post on Wednesday, July 22, the forecaster noted that "the longer-range outlook indicates that temperatures are likely to be above average overall, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August."
Dry spell continues
A prolonged period of dry weather is ongoing across large parts of the UK, with hosepipe bans or water restrictions affecting millions. Met Office figures show that south-east England has seen its longest unbroken spell of no recorded rainfall for more than 30 years, with an average of zero rainfall measured across weather stations in the region for 17 consecutive days. This matches a 17-day dry period in March-April 1995.
Reservoir levels
The Environment Agency reported that reservoir storage levels in England are at 79%, about five percentage points below the long-term average for this time of year, according to its weekly dry weather and drought report released last Friday. Six reservoirs are classed as having "notably low" levels, including Wimbleball in Somerset, Grafham in Cambridgeshire and Hanningfield in Essex. Blagdon reservoir in Somerset is classed as "exceptionally low."
30°C days
There have been 28 days in 2026 when 30°C has been exceeded somewhere in the UK. The record for the most 30°C-plus days in a calendar year is 34, set in 1995.
Forecast details
The Met Office stated: "At this range, it is not possible to say exactly where any heatwave conditions would occur, how intense they might be, or how long they could last. Heatwave development will depend on the position and strength of high pressure, the source of the air moving across the UK, and whether any Atlantic or thundery interruptions break down the warmer pattern."
"So, while the end of July and start of August look a little more unsettled, the chance of more notable warmth increases later in August. The most likely outcome is a transition from mixed weather at first towards something drier, warmer and more settled as the month goes on."
Long-range outlook
For the period July 26 to August 4, the Met Office expects a "changeable" period with a mixture of sunny spells and rain. Northwestern areas are more likely to see rainfall, but southeastern areas should also see some showers. There are hints that high pressure could return, bringing dry conditions, especially in the south. Temperatures will be near or above normal, warmest in the south, and perhaps becoming very warm again by the start of August.
Looking at August 5 to 19, the Met Office said higher pressure is generally more likely than lower pressure, meaning settled and dry weather will likely prevail, especially across the south. Some rain is still possible, particularly in northern parts, and occasional summertime thunderstorms are possible. Temperatures will very likely remain above normal, with potential for further hot spells, especially in the south.
