The Met Office has identified the UK's next 'heatwave window', indicating a fourth hot spell of the summer is possible. This comes after three heatwaves in May, June and July baked the country, with a drought declared in parts of Wales and other regions at risk.
Recent heatwaves and drought
This summer has been exceptionally warm. In late July, the mercury reached 37C in Norfolk, just short of the record 40.3C recorded in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, in July 2022. The dry conditions led to a drought declaration in Wales last week, with multiple regions in 'prolonged dry weather' – the stage before drought.
Forecast for mid-August
The Met Office's long-range forecast for August 10-24 states: "Dry and settled conditions will probably dominate much of this period with high pressure patterns tending to affect the UK. This may be interrupted at times by Atlantic frontal systems, especially in the north, or thunderstorms in the south. However, overall rainfall amounts will likely be below normal. Temperatures will probably be above normal and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south."
Despite this, much of the UK had a wet weekend on July 26. Showers are expected to continue in the north of England, while the south stays drier with near-normal temperatures.
Early August outlook
The medium-range forecast for July 31 to August 9 says the start of August will be 'very warm' in the south-east. It notes: "Temperatures ranging from around average in the north-west to warm in the southeast, perhaps becoming very warm in the southeast through the weekend. It will probably become more changeable thereafter, with potential for an area of low pressure to move close to or across the UK early in August. This could bring spells of heavy rain and perhaps some strong winds for a time. It may become more settled again toward the end of the first week of August."
On Monday, July 27, highs are 25C in London, 19C in Edinburgh, 21C in Cardiff and Belfast, and 19C in Manchester with rain.
