The Met Office has issued a forecast for the next three months, indicating an "increased chance of heatwave conditions" developing in the UK. This follows a scorching heatwave in May during which temperatures surged to 35.1C in Kew Gardens, London, the hottest May temperature on record.
Long-Range Outlook for Summer
Weather models suggest that the mercury could soon rise above 30C towards the middle of June. The Met Office's long-range outlook for June, July, and August states that "hot conditions are more likely than usual" this summer. Although "near average conditions are still just about the most likely outcome," forecasters emphasize that "we have a more than usual chance of a hot summer."
The rising likelihood of heatwaves is "consistent with the long-term trend of rising UK temperatures linked to global climate change," the forecast adds.
MeteoGroup Forecast
MeteoGroup, which provides data to BBC Weather, also suggests more heatwaves could occur. It forecasts "above-average temperatures" across June, July, and August, with "significant bursts" of heat expected in both the UK and across Europe. "A few notable high temperature spikes" are also possible, it adds.
Detailed June Forecast
For June 8 to June 17, the Met Office predicts "showers or longer spells of rain," with the wettest conditions in the north-west, while the south-east is expected to remain driest. Towards the end of this period, higher pressure and more settled conditions could become more prevalent, particularly in the south. "Temperatures are likely to be near normal overall," the Met Office adds.
Looking ahead to June 18 to July 2, high pressure should bring "drier conditions to most parts of the UK" at the start, although showers remain possible. "Winds will mostly be light with temperatures probably above normal," it states. "Towards the end of June, low pressure may begin to have more of an influence, especially across the south where heavy showers and thunderstorms become more probable. It may also become hot in parts of the south."
