Farmers have warned that record summer heat could make pumpkins, turkeys and Christmas trees unviable, threatening beloved seasonal staples including Christmas dinner.
This summer was the hottest on record, with an average mean temperature of 16.5C and a peak of 38.1C recorded in London in mid-August. The scorching conditions brought drought to large parts of the UK, including Wales and more than half of England, with water shortages continuing in some areas. It was also one of the most severe summers for wildfires the country has seen.
The conditions have been brutal for British farmers, and experts believe summers like the one Britain just experienced will become more common.
Climate analysis points to more frequent extremes
Earlier this autumn, the Met Office's Head of Climate Attribution Dr Mark McCarthy said: “The summer of 2026 has been remarkable and is an example of the extremes we can expect to see more frequently as a consequence of human induced climate change.”
“Our analysis shows a summer like the one we’ve just experienced is now around 130 times more likely because of climate change. In a climate unaffected by human emissions of greenhouse gases, a summer like this would be exceptionally unlikely, i.e. 1 in over 1,000 years. In our current climate, which is changing because of the effect of burning of fossil fuels, we should now expect this to be roughly a 1 in 9 year event.”
Farmers consider cutbacks on key produce
A poll of UK farmers by Novuna Business Finance found that 84% said they would cut back on one or more product lines if the extreme weather experienced during this summer becomes the norm for future years.
Of those who said they would make cutbacks, 17% said pumpkins, which sell in droves during Halloween, would no longer be viable to grow. Others included barley (24%), poultry – including turkey, duck and goose (15%) and root vegetables (31%). A further 17% of farmers also said growing Christmas trees would no longer be viable, the firm said.
Joanna Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance said: “As we go into a winter season braced for El Niño, our latest research reminds us that the prolonged extreme heat over the summer months had a significant impact on many SMEs across the UK – with farmers particularly affected.”
“Nationally, 41% of small and established businesses say their enterprises are impacted by the weather each season. Farmers are among those most affected, which is why they need more support as a vital part of the economy.”
“At Novuna Business Finance we are supporting SMEs to become sustainable enterprises. Also, for our agricultural customers experiencing financial difficulties as a result of extreme weather, we are adopting a flexible approach to help them navigate unforeseen challenges.”
Preparing for future hot summers
The research also found that many farmers are considering measures to be prepared for another hot summer in the future. 29% are investing in water storage reservoirs and 33% are looking into drought-resistant crop varieties.
In August, the Government announced a £65 million funding boost for drought-hit farmers to build resilience against water shortages, alongside other measures to help ease the pressure on producers.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs have been approached for comment.
