A powerful El Niño has officially begun, with scientists warning that extreme weather could escalate rapidly. The phenomenon, a natural Pacific weather pattern that elevates global temperatures, has been declared active by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have risen sharply in recent months, prompting the announcement.
Impact on the UK
In the United Kingdom, El Niño could tilt the odds toward a mild start to winter followed by a cold end. The warming of ocean waters introduces significant heat to the surface, fueling extreme events worldwide, according to Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier. She cautioned that conditions, especially in the Pacific, could become dire very quickly.
Global Warnings
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described El Niño as an urgent climate warning, stating it will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. NOAA's official announcement on Thursday confirmed that El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
Climate scientists fear this event could become a Super El Niño by year-end, with sea surface temperatures rising well above normal. A very strong El Niño typically lifts global air temperatures by around 0.2°C, releasing ocean-stored heat into the atmosphere. This extra heat lands on a world already setting records—2024, the warmest year on record, was boosted by an El Niño that was not even especially strong.
Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa, emphasized the deadly implications for millions. He noted that El Niño means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge, particularly in East Africa, where communities already battered by droughts and floods will face further hardship.
