Scientists have warned that El Niño could bring extreme weather conditions to many parts of the world as the phenomenon officially begins. US scientists confirmed that El Niño has started, potentially causing disruptions to weather, food supplies, and economies globally.
El Niño Officially Under Way
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have surpassed the 0.5°C above average mark, indicating El Niño is now under way. While forecasters expected the warming phase after La Niña ended earlier this year, many warn this event could become a "super" El Niño.
Potential for Record Heat
With the potential to be one of the strongest ever recorded, combined with decades of human-caused warming, forecasters estimate it could bring another record-hot year, most likely in 2027. While some enjoy hotter weather, it could disrupt weather, food supplies, and economies next year.
NOAA stated: "El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean." Additionally, winds above the equatorial Pacific have begun to shift, indicating the atmosphere is responding to the warmer ocean.
How El Niño Works
During El Niño, the ocean transfers heat to the air, making it warmer. Combined with already soaring global temperatures, this makes the atmosphere even hotter. El Niño occurs every two to seven years and is expected to develop later this year.
Scientists predict a "very strong" El Niño is likely, defined as sea surface temperatures 2°C above average. NOAA's June outlook states a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, ranking among the largest events since 1950.
Potential for Even Stronger Event
Some latest models from the US and Europe warn temperatures in the tropical Pacific could go 3°C above average by year's end. Professor Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office cautioned: "The current El Niño is riding on top of substantial global warming. Actual temperatures in affected regions could be unprecedented."
Globally, the warmest year on record is 2024, boosted by an El Niño. However, scientists warn the previous pattern was not especially strong compared to the current one. Professor Scaife added: "At the end of this year and into 2027, we're likely to see very high temperatures globally, potentially exceeding 1.5°C warming above late-19th-century levels."
Extreme Weather Risks
Scientists warn a strong El Niño could bring intense droughts, heavy rainfall, and increased risk of heatwaves on land and in the ocean.
However, not every agency agrees. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) uses stricter criteria, requiring sea surface temperatures to exceed 0.8°C above average. While it states the Pacific is "approaching El Niño conditions", it has not formally declared the event.
