El Niño has officially begun, US scientists have announced, and the weather system could bring unprecedented weather. The phenomenon forms some of the Earth's most important weather systems, affecting temperatures and rainfall around the world.
What is El Niño?
El Niño refers to the warming of the sea surface temperature and is a phenomenon that occurs every few years, according to the Met Office. It is declared when the temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean reach 0.5°C above average. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific Ocean have passed the 0.5°C threshold already. The effects of the phenomenon typically peak towards the end of the year, usually in December.
Concerns Over a 'Super' El Niño
The effects of a super El Niño could be graver than a regular one. A super El Niño is typically more intense, with ocean temperatures exceeding 2°C above average. Scientists have said they're already concerned about the implications of a 'super' El Niño, with Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, telling the BBC people need to worry.
'The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming,' he said. 'This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change.'
El Niño naturally boosts the Earth's temperatures during the cycle, but the Earth is hotter than ever before – meaning the effects could be deadly. Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa, told the BBC: 'An El Niño declaration is not just another weather forecast – for millions of people it is a deadly siren to be feared.'
'It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again. In East Africa, especially, this will land on communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years.'
Impact on the UK
With El Niño, the UK could experience yet another year of record-breaking temperatures, which is already being driven by climate change. Storm tracks across the Atlantic could also impact how and where winter storms develop in the UK, following this year's earlier storms of Dave, Chandra, Ingrid, and Goretti.
