The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared the arrival of El Niño for 2026, prompting the Met Office to outline potential impacts on UK weather. This global weather phenomenon, characterised by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to be a very strong event, possibly one of the most intense on record.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. The Met Office notes that current guidance suggests sea-surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2°C in the affected region.
UK Weather Implications
According to Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, predictions have been signalling a significant event for some time. The phenomenon could lead to more unsettled conditions in the UK, including milder, wetter, and windier weather during autumn and early winter. However, the Met Office also warns of potentially colder and calmer periods later in the winter.
Globally, experts anticipate that El Niño will amplify extreme weather across the planet, with the additional heat from fossil fuel pollution exacerbating the situation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described it as an urgent climate warning.
Record Heat Potential
The weather phenomenon could potentially make 2027 the hottest year in the global series dating back to 1850, according to Met Office predictions. This aligns with concerns that El Niño, combined with long-term climate change, may push global temperatures to new extremes.
- El Niño declared for 2026 by NOAA
- Possible very strong event with anomalies over 2°C
- UK: milder, wetter autumn; colder periods later
- Global extreme weather amplified
- Potential for hottest year on record
