Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, has faced attacks from an alliance of trade unions and City figures opposing his potential role as chancellor under presumptive Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Critics argue his net zero transition agenda would cause job losses and worsen public finances, but these claims do not hold up under scrutiny.
Union Concerns Over Jobs Misguided
Unite and GMB unions fear Miliband's stance against new North Sea oil licences will cost jobs. However, as chancellor, Miliband would control public investment, regional development, industrial strategy, tax incentives, retraining, and social protection—tools essential to support workers in the transition. The Treasury previously blocked his £28bn per year green prosperity plan, which aimed to create 650,000 jobs by 2030, focusing on industrial regions and green skills. A CBI report finds the green transition is a major driver of industrial job creation, with the net zero economy generating £105bn output (3.5% of UK GDP) and supporting over one million jobs, particularly in north-east England. Average wages and productivity in the sector are above the national average, and the Climate Change Committee notes that every £1 of public net zero spending yields benefits of 2.2 to 4.1 times.
Bond Market Fears Unfounded
Investors worry that green investment would increase borrowing and spook bond markets. However, bond markets fear inflation, which reduces asset values and prompts interest rate hikes. Miliband's green policies address inflation's root causes. The UK's 2022-23 inflation shock was a supply-side energy crisis driven by dependence on imported fossil fuels. Since WWII, energy price spikes have coincided with eight of ten episodes where inflation neared or exceeded 5%. Investment in cheap domestic renewables, electricity networks, home insulation, and industrial decarbonisation would reduce exposure to volatile gas prices, strengthening rather than weakening confidence in UK bonds.
Treasury Reform Needed for Growth
The UK's slow growth calls for Treasury reform. Decades of fiscal zeal have led to falling public investment and poor-value private finance initiatives, resulting in lower growth, higher debt-to-GDP ratio, and crumbling services. Rachel Reeves failed to challenge these orthodoxies. Miliband, with experience as a Treasury adviser under Gordon Brown and as a effective minister, has the intellectual heft to reform it. Unison, Britain's largest union, backs him.
Andy Burnham advocates greater public control over essentials like energy and housing to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. With Miliband as chancellor, he can argue that major green investment is the only way to stabilise the economy and create well-paid jobs in poorer regions.
