The latest round of job cuts at Australia's national science agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), will proceed despite the federal government announcing an additional $387 million in funding in last week's budget. Leading researchers have warned that these cuts will render Australia unable to submit climate projections to global reports and will significantly diminish the country's ability to forecast future climate damage.
Impact on Climate Modelling
Multiple sources have informed Guardian Australia that CSIRO intends to dismiss approximately one-third of the team working on the national climate model, known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (Access). This model provides projections relied upon by governments, councils, industry, and farmers for future planning. Senior scientists assert that these redundancies will result in Australia losing its capability to contribute an international-standard climate model to major assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Details of the Cuts
CSIRO management is expected to confirm at a staff meeting on Thursday that it is making about 100 scientists redundant as part of a broader plan announced last November to cut between 300 and 350 full-time research positions. This follows the sacking of 818 support staff last year. The agency's chief executive, Doug Hilton, has stated that the latest cuts will proceed despite the Albanese government's announcement of $387 million in extra CSIRO funding, which is largely allocated to upgrading buildings and research infrastructure, including the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness in Geelong.
Approximately five of the 15 CSIRO scientists working on the Access model have been told they are likely to lose their jobs. While CSIRO management told a Senate inquiry in February that the impact would be minimal, citing around 60 people working on the climate model, experts dispute this figure. Andy Hogg, a professor of ocean and climate modelling and director of Access-NRI, which supports the software development underpinning the CSIRO projections, clarified: “If you look at the team of people on the core capability it's 12 to 15, and we understand that it's about five that are going. These cuts will make us suboptimal in core climate science capability in atmospheric and oceanographic modelling, and in understanding the concepts that really drive our weather and climate.”
Christian Jakob, a professor at Monash University's School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment and a leading climate modeller, agreed: “It is a relatively small number developing climate models. It's certainly not 60. They are making sure we have a better model in a year's time. That will go away.”
Consequences for Australia and Global Science
The Access model is a computer-based simulation that integrates international and national data on the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice to project future climate scenarios under different greenhouse gas emissions pathways. It underpins climate information used by scientists, governments, councils, industry, and farmers for detailed analysis that shapes planning and investment decisions. Jakob warned that cutting CSIRO's climate modelling expertise would “remove a basic foundational capability” to prepare for the future. “Australia will no longer be seen as a credible contributor to international assessment of climate change. Full stop,” he said. “I feel angry. I have been a climate modeller for 30 years. It will mean I can't stand up in front of people and say we're giving the best information we can.”
A CSIRO spokesperson maintained that the agency's climate science capability would be retained: “CSIRO will continue to provide climate data, models and scenarios to manage the impacts of climate change. The proposed changes sharpen our effort by reducing activity in selected areas including atmospheric chemistry modelling, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support so we can better align our climate portfolio with our future science priorities, and deliver the strongest possible outcomes for Australia.”
However, Hogg warned that Australia may not be able to submit projections this year for the IPCC's seventh major assessment report, due in 2028 and 2029. He noted that CSIRO has no plan for continued meaningful contributions to future global climate projections, despite Australia being the only country with modelling focused on the southern hemisphere. “That capacity will be difficult to rebuild. It would cost twice as much to get it back in later,” he said.
Jakob highlighted additional ramifications, including Australia losing its ability to attract top international scientific talent and having reduced capacity to understand issues such as the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and its impact on the Australian coastline. “We need to know how other countries' climates are changing because they will matter to us … and there is a question of whether we can rely on other countries for information as we used to. I think it's a very foolish path to go down,” he said.
Root Causes and Funding Issues
While scientists criticised the CSIRO decision, researchers—including some within CSIRO who spoke on condition of anonymity—attributed the cuts primarily to years of federal governments failing to increase the agency's direct funding in line with rising costs. CSIRO managers are required to secure 70% of funding from external sources, typically industry or other government departments, before a new research project is approved. The Albanese government stated that CSIRO receives approximately $1 billion in recurrent annual funding and has provided an additional $278 million in 2025 and $387 million over four years in the latest budget. The science minister, Tim Ayres, did not respond to questions about the cuts to climate modelling capacity.
