A new analysis of hundreds of pre-modern states suggests that civilisations have a 'shelf-life', becoming gradually more likely to terminate over time. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the largest of its kind and may hold lessons for today's ageing global powers, according to researchers.
The team of archaeologists, historians and complexity scientists used survival analysis on two databases. The first, 'Moros', contained 324 states covering 3,000 years from 2000BC to AD1800. The second, the Sehat databank, included 291 polities. The risk of termination rose over the first two centuries and then plateaued at a high level, contrary to a previous study of 42 empires that found no ageing effect.
Further evidence comes from studies of 'critical slowing down', where complex systems recover more slowly from disturbances before a tipping point. Both neolithic European farmers and Pueblo societies of the US southwest showed this pattern before crises. Their cycles lasted roughly two centuries, matching the wider pattern.
The researchers note caveats: state terminations vary from simple elite shifts to full societal collapse. Many communities survived even after collapse. The pattern is statistical and does not predict any specific modern outcome, but suggests that the risk for long-lasting states may be elevated.
