On 29 June, as the media gathered in Manchester to hear Andy Burnham set out his blueprint to transform the UK, the 1824 Vagrancy Act was quietly repealed in Westminster, ending two centuries of criminalising homelessness. While charities welcomed the symbolic shift from punishment to prevention, it did nothing to tackle the scale of the problem. The number of people sleeping rough on a single night in autumn 2025 in England reached a record high of 4,793, exceeding the previous peak of 4,751 in 2017 and marking the fourth annual increase in a row, despite UK government spending on homelessness more than doubling in the past five years.
Burnham's Pledge
On Monday, addressing the nation for the first time as prime minister, Burnham said his first instruction in office would be “to end rough sleeping in our country.” This was a familiar refrain—he made a similar pledge on his first day as mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017. He is not the first Labour leader to be so moved: Tony Blair vowed to end the “scandal” in 1999, a goal his government nearly achieved before progress unravelled under successive Conservative governments. Jeremy Corbyn had also planned to announce a similar commitment if elected prime minister.
Dr Maya Singer Hobbs of IPPR North spoke about the Manchester rough sleeping case study and what lessons it holds for a national effort.
Record Levels and Causes
Rough sleeping and homelessness more broadly have risen to record levels in recent years due to many factors: a chronic shortage of social and affordable housing, local initiatives derailed by the pandemic, inadequate support for prison leavers or those fleeing domestic abuse. Young people become vulnerable when tenancies end and housing benefit cannot keep pace with soaring private rents, especially in city centres like Manchester. Hidden homelessness—sleeping in a car or on a friend’s sofa—can abruptly tip into crisis when circumstances change.
Charities working with migrants describe a funnel effect as individuals granted asylum have nowhere to go after their 42-day “move-on” period from Home Office accommodation. Growing numbers with immigration status giving no recourse to public funds are barred from homelessness services but also have no right to work.
The Manchester Model
On Monday, IPPR North published a report co-authored by Singer Hobbs with the charity Crisis, calling for a genuinely “housing-led” approach to homelessness. It predicts current levels could rise by 25% to more than 230,000 people by 2030 without radical action from central government. Burnham had been due to write the foreword before launching his bid for re-election to the Commons.
The report recommends national rollout of two Manchester-tested initiatives. Burnham’s “A Bed Every Night” programme expanded emergency overnight accommodation to anyone who needed it, not just those with “priority need.” Housing First targets the most entrenched rough sleepers with high support needs, assuming people make most progress when based in stable housing rather than a hostel or B&B. Following success in the US and Finland, Housing First has been piloted in the West Midlands, Liverpool, and across Scotland.
Singer Hobbs notes that Burnham making rough sleeping his immediate mayoral priority was significant: “He expended political capital,” and people working in the sector said it made things easier because they knew exactly what he wanted. This forced more effective collaboration across boroughs and agencies, such as sharing data on who was rough sleeping in different areas.
Scaling Up
Although rough sleeping numbers in Manchester fell every year from 2018 to 2021, post-pandemic they have crept back up. Local charities argued that a nationwide approach was needed to tackle systemic drivers. “As the mayor of Greater Manchester, he had no control over many of the things that drive homelessness,” says Singer Hobbs, “the welfare system, the Home Office or the Ministry of Justice. As prime minister, he has those levers.”
The challenge is “the eternal balance of any kind of devolution.” Frontline services need hyper-local coordination, but prevention sits nationally, ensuring policies in one department do not inadvertently drive homelessness up elsewhere. One preventive act would be increasing the “move-on” period for those recently granted refugee status.
Criticism has been levelled at A Bed Every Night: the offer could be a bare minimum of a sleeping bag on a hostel floor, and night shelters have little capacity to move people out of their circumstances, sometimes escalating vulnerabilities. The UK government already spends billions on expensive and regularly sub-standard temporary accommodation, with growing numbers stuck there due to lack of available housing. Research for the Children’s Commissioner for England last year found 520 families in England had been living in a B&B for over a year.
IPPR North has examined innovative approaches: Wigan leased long-term empty homes at lower rates from private landlords; Waltham Forest repurposed council-owned buildings. But this is another pinchpoint for Burnham: can he ensure temporary accommodation is just a brief emergency provision on the way to a settled home? If he delivers “the biggest council housebuilding programme since the postwar period,” as outlined in June, it would ease pressure on local authorities. But his predecessor Keir Starmer’s efforts to build 1.5m homes over five years stalled due to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and Brexit impact.
Lessons from Scotland
In Scotland, Holyrood’s homelessness legislation has been lauded as some of the most progressive in the world, but it has failed to deliver due to a mismatch between legal rights and practical resources. Most Scottish councils already have the Housing First programme, but rough sleeping has been on the rise since lockdown. Campaigners suggest momentum was lost after Covid, with the Scottish government failing to provide long-term oversight and vision.
Unlike England, Scotland and Wales have abolished the concept of priority need. But at a time when local government is struggling financially, this universal duty to house anyone unintentionally homeless added a huge burden on councils. It has also attracted people newly granted asylum from other parts of the UK, something Reform weaponised during the Holyrood election campaign.
Nevertheless, IPPR North and Crisis argue this move is fundamentally fairer and have urged the UK government to roll it out nationwide, with a timeline and additional resources. Charities in Scotland believe this would balance the system, reducing the incentive for people in need to move across the border.
Can Burnham End Rough Sleeping?
“I’d like to think so,” says Singer Hobbs, with the caveat that the funding announced on Monday is unlikely to be enough. Blair’s rough sleepers’ unit, spearheaded by Louise Casey who also coordinated ‘Everyone In’ at the start of lockdown, showed what could be achieved if homelessness was treated as a public health crisis.
Most people won’t experience homelessness, yet it is becoming an increasing public anxiety. Polling ahead of May’s Holyrood elections found one in three Scots worried they could lose their home in the coming years, while 61% were more likely to vote for parties prioritising action on homelessness. “People sleeping rough is a really visible sign of our public realm not being fit for purpose,” says Singer Hobbs. Burnham already understands that homelessness is a political choice. Now facing an electorate weary of broken promises, he has staked his government’s reputation on it.
