British holidaymakers planning trips to Spain in July, August, and September are being warned that this year's getaways could be unbearably scorching, following an unprecedented summer in 2025. The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has confirmed that 2026 will see exceptionally high temperatures, with predictive models placing the probability of a hotter-than-usual summer at between 50% and 70% across the entire country.
Record-breaking spring sets the stage
After the second warmest spring in recorded history since 1961, AEMET has warned that the summer months are locked into the same blistering trend. This follows 2025, which was the third-warmest year on record and saw a summer that tied with 2022 for the hottest ever recorded. Current atmospheric trends appear to be continuing severe "thermal inertia," reinforcing a pattern where extreme temperatures are reluctant to let up.
The first official heatwave of the summer began to ease on Thursday, June 25, but forecasters expect temperatures to remain exceptionally high for at least the next fortnight. Looking further ahead, the scorching trend becomes even more pronounced throughout July, August, and September.
High probability of heat across most regions
The probability of warmer-than-normal weather this summer exceeds 70% across the majority of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, dropping only slightly to between 60% and 70% in the southwest and the Canary Islands. Meteorologists are also highlighting increased uncertainty in rainfall forecasts, estimating a 40% to 50% chance of a wetter-than-usual summer across much of the country. This will likely trigger a notable increase in sudden afternoon thunderstorms, which will be more severe in southeastern Spain and the eastern Canary Islands, where the probability of these violent downpours rises to 50% to 60%.
El Niño intensifies global warming concerns
On top of this, the global scientific community is closely monitoring the emergence of large-scale macroclimatic patterns that are altering weather across Europe and making seasonal forecasting more volatile. AEMET spokesperson Rubén del Campo explained that "El Niño is already here," adding that "models point to a very intense episode, with temperature anomalies exceeding two degrees."
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In June 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) officially declared that this El Niño had formed and was rapidly intensifying, with a 63% chance of developing into a historically powerful "Super El Niño" by the end of 2026.
Because El Niño releases massive amounts of accumulated ocean heat directly into the atmosphere, 2026 is currently on track to be one of the top two warmest years ever recorded in human history. A high of 40.5°C was recorded at Seville Airport on May 31.
April shattered records, spring was dry
While March behaved within normal parameters, April shattered all historical records, with averages nearly 4 degrees above normal. May began deceptively cool, but a very strong heatwave which hit on May 19 altered the monthly trend, causing thermometers to climb up to six degrees above normal in the final stretch of the month and leading to highs such as 40.5°C at Seville Airport on May 31.
As for rainfall, spring was markedly dry across almost the entire country, accumulating only 134 litres per square metre — equivalent to just 75% of the usual amount — making it the 14th driest spring since 1961. According to AEMET, Spain is experiencing a long-term warming trend, with the average annual temperature increasing by 1.75°C since 1961. This shift is reflected in recent climate data, which shows that all 12 of the warmest years on record in the country have occurred during the 21st century.
