If you think the temperature is uncomfortable today, consider the last day of July 2052. From the air, London resembles a colossal refugee camp, with streets, gardens and parks teeming with tents as residents flee the heat traps their homes have become. After six days peaking at about 40°C, another scorcher is on the way.
Half-hearted insulation upgrades ran out of steam decades ago, leaving most homes vulnerable to heat. While almost all electricity now comes from renewables, the relentless extreme weather has driven a global economic depression. Many have air conditioning but cannot afford to run it.
Early risers queue at standpipes for water after a succession of dry winters and a spring drought brought rationing across south-east England. Ironically, daily electric storms bring torrential rain, but most cascades into overwhelmed storm drains, causing surface flooding but no relief from the potable water shortage.
Growing crowds cluster around state-run grocery stores providing basics at affordable prices. Failed harvests and reduced food imports have led to rationing of bread and other staples. Supermarkets still exist but cater almost entirely to the wealthy.
The power is out again, intermittently since the heatwave began. Extreme temperatures cause cables to sag and break, and transformers to overheat. Doors are open to let in night air that has not fallen below 29°C. Trailing cables connect televisions and laptops for those marooned at home by widespread transport chaos.
Every hospital is overwhelmed as the heat and humidity take their toll on the vulnerable. The final death toll across the country once the heat abates is likely to be in the tens of thousands. This scenario is feasible if we continue unprepared into a climatically challenging future, with global temperatures on track to rise more than 2°C above preindustrial levels by mid-century.
