Almost 600 people are expected to die prematurely during the current heatwave in England and Wales, according to a rapid analysis by scientists. The surge in deaths would not be occurring without human-caused global heating, with temperatures boosted by 2C-4C due to fossil fuel pollution.
Premature deaths will occur across both countries, but the highest mortality rates are expected in London and the West Midlands. Most deaths – 85% – will be among people over 65, who are more vulnerable to extreme heat. Those in inner-city homes are also at high risk.
More than 10,000 people died prematurely in summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). The government's preparations to protect people from the escalating impacts of the climate crisis were condemned as “inadequate, piecemeal and disjointed” by official advisers in April.
The 32C heat expected in south-east England on Saturday has been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists said. Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis of Imperial College London, part of the analysis team, said: “Heatwaves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them typically have pre-existing health conditions and rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death.”
Prof Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine added: “Increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death. Every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS.”
The UKHSA issued an amber heat-health alert on Thursday, warning of “a rise in deaths” and “significant impacts” to health and social care services. The alert is expected to remain in force until Monday morning. The UK Climate Change Committee estimated that heat-related deaths could rise to more than 10,000 a year by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 2C above pre-industrial levels.
