The global food system is dangerously fragile and at risk of collapse, according to environmental writer George Monbiot. In a recent article, he warns that the system's vulnerabilities mirror those of the financial system before the 2008 crash, and that the war with Iran could be a trigger.
Monbiot points to extreme concentration of power in a few corporations, which have consolidated both vertically and horizontally. A recent study found the US food system has consolidated nearly twice as much as the overall economy. Some of these firms have diversified into financial products, resembling banks but with less regulation, making it hard to distinguish hedging from speculation.
Just-in-time supply chains and reliance on chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal exacerbate risks. Obstruction of these routes could threaten food, fertiliser, and fuel flows. Monbiot also notes the potential for Houthi rebels in Yemen to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping.
The system has lost key resilience elements: diversity, redundancy, modularity, backup, asynchronicity, and circuit breakers. A collapse could be triggered by a corporate failure, chokepoint closure, IT outage, or climate event combined with geopolitical crisis, leading to cascading bankruptcies and mass starvation.
Monbiot calls for breaking up big corporations and implementing proper regulation to prevent a potential termination event for complex societies.
