Demand for biofuels is expected to rise by nearly a third this year, potentially driving food price inflation higher and pushing the world closer to a global food crisis, experts have warned. The surge follows oil prices jumping to nearly $100 a barrel after US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Countries including the US, Indonesia, Brazil and Thailand are increasing the amount of biofuel blended with fossil fuels. The Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimates demand could rise by 70% by 2030 if oil supplies remain constrained. However, biofuels compete with food crops for land and fertiliser, which is already in short supply due to the war in Ukraine.
Kädi Ristkok, T&E's energy and climate director, said: “Governments are playing a dangerous game by promoting food for fuel. Leaders are understandably trying to find solutions to the current oil crisis, but biofuels can never play more than a marginal role in our energy system without devastating consequences.”
Globally, about one in every 20 tonnes of fertiliser is used for biofuel crops, rising to a tenth in the US and a fifth in Indonesia. Biofuels currently supply 4% of world transport energy, but planned increases could push that to 6%. Reaching 20% would require land the size of South Africa.
Simon Suzan, principal energy analyst at T&E, said the impact on food prices could be significant. During the 2007-08 food crisis, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization attributed 40-70% of maize and soya bean price rises to biofuels. The US already forecasts food price rises of 2.2-4.7% this year, partly due to the Iran war.
Suzan urged a shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy, noting that solar panels on just 3% of land used for biofuels could generate enough energy to power a third of the global car fleet. Biofuels also produce about 16% more CO2 than fossil fuels due to deforestation and land-use changes.
