Campaigners have warned Scottish Labour faces becoming 'extinct' at Holyrood by 2040 unless it severs ties with the UK party. Just For Scotland (JFS) is calling on all prospective candidates bidding to replace Anas Sarwar to commit to having 'a conversation with members about where our future lies'.
JFS wants the party in Scotland to breakaway from UK Labour to form a distinctive organisation capable of winning back power at the Scottish Parliament. Scottish Labour has not won a Holyrood election since 2003 and suffered its worst ever result at the poll in May, which saw just 17 MSPs returned.
Leadership context
Sarwar, who has led the party in Scotland since 2021, announced his resignation last week after he was offered a UK ministerial post by Andy Burnham. Leadership hopeful Monica Lennon yesterday ruled out Scottish Labour breaking away if she succeeds in landing the top job. She told the Record: 'I’m not proposing we tear up our ties with UK Labour. I want a modern, mature relationship built on genuine mutual respect - one where Scottish Labour members trust and believe they have a voice in shaping our future direction.'
But JFS insists such a move is required if the party is to stand any chance of rebuilding and taking the fight to the SNP.
Campaigner's warning
Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, a Scottish Labour candidate at the 2024 general election, said: 'Our party has only ever lost seats and vote share in the Parliament we created. If our average losses are projected forward, we will be extinct in Holyrood by the end of next decade.'
'If we continue to be seen as part of UK Labour, we will continue to be judged in relation to the success or otherwise of that party. If we do not show voters that we are entirely for Scotland, we will continue to lose when the electorate asks themselves who best stands up for our nation.'
'It is no surprise, then, that a recent poll commissioned by JFS suggested three in five historic Labour voters now backing the SNP could come back to us if we become a separate party. Such a move is disproportionately popular among younger voters, in all age groups under 55, by a margin of around two to one.'
'Voters do not notice or care about the minutiae of party structures, like where selections or party discipline take place, or how much autonomy we have from UK Labour.'
'People want to feel instinctively that our party is unambiguously for Scotland. Doing that is not in itself a winning formula. But it is a prerequisite.'
'In this leadership contest, candidates will rightly debate fundamental questions about who and what we are for, the style of leadership, and policy positioning. But those issues mean little to voters while we are seen as not for Scotland and judged in relation to UK Labour.'
Call for structural review
'Just For Scotland is therefore calling on any leadership candidate to back a conversation with members about where our future lies. This would investigate comparable structures internationally, such as the PLQ in Quebec and the CDU in Bavaria, and work through whipping implications in Westminster.'
'It would also open Scottish Labour’s books on the practical implications of such a move. This would not merely be a structural tweak, but a strong political statement of intent - we are a party that is for Scotland. Anything less, and it’s another two decades until we’re back in government.'
A poll conducted by Find Out Now for JFS suggested that up to 60 per cent of voters who had left Labour for the SNP or the Greens would return if the party was fully independent. An even greater number would switch back if the Scottish Labour Party changed its name, though it is not clear what that might be.
