Nintendo has released its first official sales estimates for the upcoming Switch 2, predicting 15 million units sold in its first nine months. This figure matches the original Switch's launch performance, but falls short of analyst expectations of 6–8 million sales in the same period, which would have been a record-breaking launch.
The company's conservative outlook is largely attributed to the volatile tariff environment under US President Donald Trump. Nintendo manufactures much of its hardware in China, which now faces 145% tariffs, and has been shifting production to Vietnam—only for that country to also face increased duties, later reduced to 10%.
Analyst Dr Serkan Toto told VGC: 'When it comes to forecasts, I would not want to be in Nintendo’s shoes now. God knows how the tariff situation will evolve even over the next few days, so how is a company supposed to predict sales for an entire year?'
Despite the cautious numbers, demand appears strong. The Switch 2 has already sold out in Japan, prompting Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa to apologise for insufficient launch stock. Meanwhile, the original Switch is expected to sell 4.5 million units this year, bringing lifetime sales past 156 million—surpassing the Nintendo DS and closing in on the PlayStation 2's 160 million.
