Israeli Journalist Threatened by Polymarket Gamblers Over Missile Report
An Israeli journalist, Emanuel Fabian, has been subjected to a barrage of threatening messages from users of the online prediction platform Polymarket. The harassment began after one of his routine reports on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem unexpectedly became the centre of an unresolved bet worth over $23 million related to the Israel-Iran conflict.
Threats and Intimidation Over a Disputed Report
The messages to Fabian, shared with the Guardian, included explicit threats. One user warned, "After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you." Another gave an ultimatum: "You have 90 minutes left to update the lie. If you do this, you will solve the most serious problem you have caused yourself in life ... If you decide not to correct it, and leave the lie intact, you will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable." Fabian, a defence correspondent for the Times of Israel, described the incident as stemming from a relatively unimportant update he posted on 10 March about a missile striking an open area near Jerusalem, with no injuries reported.
The $23 Million Wager and Its Implications
Fabian later discovered that his report had become pivotal to a Polymarket bet on whether Iran would strike Israel on that date. The wager required a "strike" to involve a non-intercepted bomb or missile hitting Israeli soil. Users contacting him stood to win if it was determined that no direct strike had occurred, leading them to pressure him to alter his story to describe missile fragments instead of a full impact. Despite checking details with the military and declining to change the report, Fabian faced escalating aggression, including over 100 messages in one night and threats to his family.
Rise of Prediction Markets in Modern Warfare
Online prediction markets, once niche, are increasingly influencing global events. Platforms like Polymarket, backed by investors such as a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr and the Intercontinental Exchange, have faced criticism for potentially enabling war profiteering and insider trading. Mark Roulston, a researcher at the University of Lancashire, highlighted the dangers: "I think one danger is some of these markets, the kinds of volumes they all have will be low enough that they will be more easy to manipulate. If the outcome of those markets or what those markets are predicting is being used then to trade more liquid, deeper liquid financial markets, you could imagine a situation where people set out to manipulate the prediction markets with the hope of then using that to manipulate the deeper markets where a lot more money can be made."
Broader Concerns for Journalism and Ethics
Fabian's experience underscores how prediction markets may incentivise not only insider trading but also attempts by outsiders to forcibly alter public records. While threats against journalists are not new, the monetisation of world events through platforms like Polymarket could have chaotic consequences. Fabian predicted, "I think if Polymarket keeps growing the way it does, and Polymarket doesn't change the way it works, I do not doubt other journalists will get contacted or harassed or even threatened." A Polymarket representative condemned the harassment, stating it violates their terms of service and undermines the integrity of both journalism and prediction markets.
This incident raises critical questions about the ethical boundaries of gambling on conflicts and the potential for prediction markets to distort truth and safety in journalism.
