Police forces in England and Wales are preparing for a potential 6% increase in recorded crime within a year if government plans to reduce short prison sentences and release offenders early are implemented, according to senior officers.
The Sentencing Bill, aimed at easing prison overcrowding, would limit the use of custodial sentences under 12 months and allow earlier release for some criminals. Police chiefs estimate this could lead to an additional 396,000 offences annually, based on the 6.6 million crimes recorded in the year to June 2025.
Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who served as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for a rise in all crime types. He warned that while community rehabilitation programmes are being developed, there will be a short-term increase in offending. The extra policing cost is estimated at £300-400 million, which Devonport described as currently unfunded.
Despite concerns, police leaders support the reforms in principle, citing high reoffending rates for short sentences—around 50% for those under 12 months. National Police Chiefs' Council Chair Gavin Stephens emphasised the need for proper funding to manage the shift in demand onto policing.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson defended the plans, stating the government inherited a prison system in crisis and is building 14,000 additional prison places. They highlighted a £700 million increase in the probation budget over three years and strict licence conditions for released offenders to ensure public safety.
