A new study has found that the thousands of National Guard troops deployed to Washington, D.C. last summer had "no measurable effect" on reducing violent crime, despite President Donald Trump's repeated claims to the contrary.
Study Findings
The report, published on Thursday by the Niskanen Center, analyzed the impact of the troop surge, which largely stationed soldiers in low-crime tourist areas. While the deployment appeared to cause a 24 percent reduction in opportunistic property crime during its first six months, it failed to curb violent crime.
"What the Guard brought was a massive, sudden shock from the visible presence of uniformed military personnel on the streets of Washington almost overnight," the authors wrote. "For crimes driven by opportunistic calculation, that visibility appears to have mattered. For violent crime, which is less deterrable by patrol presence alone, it did not."
Cost and Effectiveness
The study described the at least $185 million deployment as a "blunt and expensive instrument," noting it cost nearly twice as much per day to field the troops compared to regular police. Meanwhile, Washington's Metropolitan Police Department managed to reduce violent crime from its 2023 peak while operating with its smallest force in decades.
Crime statistician Jeff Asher echoed these findings, telling The Trace in February: "In D.C., you've seen a massive drop in crime from the middle of 2023 through the summer of 2025 that just continued at the same level. Maybe there were a couple of weeks of lower gun violence... but again, that's hard to tease out when you've had two straight years of large declines in gun violence."
Security Incidents
The expanded presence of federal troops and agents did not deter several high-profile security incidents, including a May shooting outside the White House and a November shooting against two National Guard troops near the Farragut West Metro Station, just blocks from the White House.
Trump's Claims
Despite the evidence, President Trump frequently credited the National Guard with singlehandedly stopping crime in the capital. During his February State of the Union address, he called the operation a "big success" and claimed Washington has "almost no crime anymore." In October, he asserted, "We've got no crime," even though multiple deadly shootings had occurred around that time. "It took 12 days to solve the problem," he said.
Future Plans
Questions about the Guard's impact remain relevant as the Pentagon reportedly plans to keep soldiers in Washington through January 2029, the end of Trump's term. The administration also seeks an additional 1,500 Guardsmen for a "summer surge" around America's 250th anniversary celebrations.
