Nigeria has become a hotspot of insecurity in the Sahel, with data revealing the extent and geographical spread of attacks in Africa's most populous country. According to figures from Acled and the Global Terrorism Index, after a period of improvement, violence has worsened, drawing increasing scrutiny ahead of general elections.
Governance Vacuum Fuels Crisis
Experts identify a governance vacuum across much of Nigeria as the primary long-term driver of insecurity. Although Nigeria is a federation with 36 states and 774 local government areas, power is heavily centralized at the federal level. Resources trickle down to states in limited quantities and are distributed in even smaller amounts to local councils, largely at the discretion of governors. Consequently, vast areas of the country consist of what academics and civil society groups term ungoverned or under-governed spaces. In these zones, non-state actors—motivated by extremist ideology, economic or ethnic marginalization, or a combination—can move freely, recruit, and plan attacks.
Security Forces Stretched Thin
The situation is exacerbated by Nigeria's thinly stretched security apparatus. The military, with about 230,000 personnel, is one of Africa's largest but is fighting insurgencies on multiple fronts in the north and a secessionist movement in the south-east. The police force of around 370,000 officers translates to one officer per 600 citizens, well below the UN-recommended ratio of one per 450. In many communities outside major cities, the only government presence is an abandoned police post, a dilapidated health centre, or a barely functioning primary school.
International Intervention and Ongoing Violence
On Saturday, the US and Nigeria announced a joint operation had killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of Islamic State globally, in Nigeria's north-east. The US also targeted extremist militants in the north-western state of Sokoto late last year, and in February about 100 US soldiers arrived to advise Nigeria's military on counter-insurgency. Despite these strikes and deployments, the tide of violence has continued to rise.
Data Sources and Methodology
Data defining the Sahel geographic boundaries is provided by AtlaSahel. Political violence maps are based on a Guardian analysis of Acled conflict data. Chart data is taken from the Global Terrorism Index 2026 report.
