Manchester City have been warned they could face a 'multiple double figure' points deduction and a £1 billion bill for breaching Premier League financial rules. An independent commission ruled the club guilty on all but one of the alleged charges, but City continue to protest their innocence and have lodged an appeal against the verdict.
Attention has now turned to that appeal, with speculation mounting over what punishments City might face if the guilty ruling stands.
Expert analysis of potential sanctions
Speaking about a potential points deduction and other costs, football finance expert Kieran Maguire told GIVEMESPORT's Market Madness podcast: "The redacted report sets out year by year how much the sham contracts contributed to the artificial commercial revenue.
"Over the rolling three-year period, in some years we could be talking about a £350million difference. That would shatter all records for PSR compliance."
Maguire compared the case to previous breaches by Everton and Nottingham Forest, whose deductions covered a single breach in a single year, an overspend of no more than £20million.
Potential costs and club reactions
He added: "The sanctions hearing could already have taken place. Because City are appealing and everyone has NDAs, we might not know the sanction until the appeal result. But it has to be multiple double figures of points, before you start the calculations.
"I worked out that if you add up nine years of Champions League non-participation for individual clubs at an average of £50million a time, around £20million for the Europa League, plus potential claims from players who missed bonuses, the Premier League's legal fees and a fine, we're talking in excess of a billion pounds regardless of the points deduction."
When asked about the possibility of City being expelled from the Premier League, Maguire said: "I think it would be a very unusual vote. We did see Bury get expelled from League Two some time ago but I think that the other clubs would have to bear in mind that Manchester City would probably take legal redress and that could prove to be very expensive if they are expelled without the verdict being held and without the appeal.
"So it's a risky path to tread, but the strength of feeling does vary from club to club. Certainly some of the other elite clubs are very unhappy with the delay in the situation because they feel it has an impact upon their ability to qualify for the Champions League.
"I think some of the more mid-tier clubs who don't see Manchester City as a threat, their main concern is, is this going to further increase the already sky-high legal costs that have been incurred by the Premier League and they don't want any part of it. So, they want a quick resolution and then they can get on with the rest of their season and focus on their own clubs."
